099
FXUS61 KCLE 300758
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
today and Friday, gradually departing Saturday allowing a cold
front to cross Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns
late Sunday and remain in control through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A picture perfect stretch of weather is on tap today and Friday
if you like sunny and cool late Spring weather. The pattern is
dominated by an amplified mid/upper longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS downstream of sharp mid/upper ridging over the
Plains. This pattern will change little over the next 36 hours,
with the mid/upper trough axis only slowly progressing to the
East Coast allowing the upstream mid/upper ridge axis to push
into the western Great Lakes by late Friday. This will support
strong 1025 mb surface high pressure over the central Great
Lakes this morning only slightly drifting SE toward the
Appalachians through Friday, so abundant subsidence and dry air
beneath this high will lead to clear skies but cool temperatures
due to the continued northerly flow.

In terms of temperature details, went a couple of degrees above
blended guidance for high temperatures today and Friday since
we will have full insulation from the very strong sun angle, but
still a solid 5 degrees below normal today moderating to near
normal Friday as heights rise. This gives highs in the mid 60s
to around 70 from north central Ohio points east today, with low
70s in NW Ohio. Highs Friday warm into the low/mid 70s in most
areas, with mid/upper 70s in NW Ohio. Lows tonight will be cold
again with the high overhead, clear skies, light winds, and dry
airmass. Most areas away from the lake will fall into the
low/mid 40s, with a few upper 30s in interior NW PA and
sheltered valleys of far NE Ohio. Lakeshore areas will stay in
the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It`ll be a quiet start to the short term period as high pressure
centered just to our east and an upper-level ridge overhead continue
to make eastward progress, resulting in a precipitation-free
forecast Friday night through much of the day Saturday. An upper-
level shortwave trough quickly moved in Saturday night bringing
precipitation chances to the region Saturday night, although
precipitation could begin as early as Saturday afternoon for parts
of Northwest Ohio. PoPs currently peak in the 40-60% range for the
Saturday night period, though could see those numbers increasing
over the next couple forecast periods as we see better consistency.
Low precipitation chances continue into the day Sunday, though any
rain that lingers would probably be isolated and light, east of I-77
and would likely clear up by the afternoon. Sunday night should be
precipitation-free as brief, weak upper-level ridging builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak-upper level ridging and surface high pressure could linger into
Monday with low precipitation chances expected. Increasing humidity
and a series of weak short-wave trough will bring precipitation
chances to the area Monday night through Wednesday (generally 30-60%
range). PoPs are likely to be convectively driven with limited
forcing, so there is low confidence on area and timing. 00Z
GFS/ECWMF do have a larger upper-level trough approaching from the
west towards the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, so perhaps
that could be a focus for precipitation development. Severe weather
looks to be unlikely at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure will continue to build southward over the region
early this morning and will remain overhead through the TAF
period. This means VFR for the entire period. N winds of 10-20
knots at KERI over the next few hours will diminish to 5-10
knots. Otherwise, expect light N winds at all sites early this
morning increasing a bit to 5-10 knots by this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return Saturday night into Sunday in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and wave conditions on Lake Erie have improved so allowed the
small craft advisory and beach hazard statement expire at 4 AM this
morning. Northerly onshore flow of 10-15 knots continues through
this morning before high pressure builds in and nearly calm winds
and waves ensue this afternoon through Friday afternoon. Relatively
quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie through the forecast
period. A low pressure system is expected to move in the vicinity of
Lake Erie Saturday through Sunday, for which there could be periods
of small craft advisory conditions, although there is a good deal of
uncertainty with the low track, and thus the wind and wave forecast
as well.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     OHZ009>012.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ144>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Saunders