637
FXUS61 KCLE 110531
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
131 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight and persists through
midweek. A cold front drops through Thursday night and early
Friday, followed by more high pressure this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM Update...
No major changes to the forecast as gradual clearing continues.
Will still take into the Tuesday time frame for the eastern
zones for this to occur. Chilly overnight with widespread 40s
away from the lake.

Previous Discussion...
Weak trough axis still pushing south-southeast across inland
counties late this afternoon. It remains mostly cloudy for all
except for Northwest OH, with clearing expected to spread from
northwest to southeast through this evening. Lingering sprinkles
or light showers from Ashland to Warren points south will exit
over the next few hours. Much of the area is in the 50s, quite
impressive for the afternoon hours on June 10th. Skies become
mostly clear tonight as lows settle into the mid 40s to low 50s.
It remains mostly sunny for Tuesday with highs ranging from the
mid 60s in Northwest PA to the mid to upper 70s along the I-75
corridor. Some mid-high level clouds drift through Tuesday
night with lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s in interior PA
to the mid-upper 50s along I-75. There may be a bit of patchy
fog in valleys tonight into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Appalachians to start the day on Wednesday
will shift to the East Coast. Return flow with southwest winds will
develop with temperatures warming 8-10 degrees on Wednesday to near
normal values and then continuing to climb to above normal values on
Thursday as 850mb temperatures warm to 16-18C. Low pressure will
develop across the Upper Great Lakes ahead of a trough moving
through the northwest flow out of Canada. The atmosphere remains
fairly dry through the day on Thursday as moisture increases across
lower Michigan ahead of the front slowly settling south. While the
main area of low pressure moves northeast into Quebec, a chance
of showers and thunderstorms does expand Thursday night as
secondary wave of low pressure develops along the boundary
across Lake Erie. Highest pops are focused near and east of Lake
Erie with modest instability along the boundary before settling
south through the overnight hours and into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Although instability looks limited by Friday morning, some showers
and thunderstorms may still be ongoing, especially across southern
and eastern portions of the area. Generally speaking the cold front
is not expected to fully clear the area until mid-afternoon on
Friday. Temperatures trend cooler behind the front Friday into
Saturday before a strong warm up arrives for the end of the long
term. A strong ridge builds overhead with 500mb heights of near
591dm bringing hot and summer-like temperatures to the region.
Highs are likely to surpass 90 degrees across most of Ohio by
Monday if this pattern verifies. We will need to keep an eye out
for shortwave energy trying to round the ridge and bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms but good agreement among the
long range ensembles currently support well above normal
temperatures by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure builds overhead and will allow for calm and clear
conditions across terminals through the period. ERI will see MVFR
ceilings linger for the next few hours before clearing to VFR
early this morning. Can`t rule out patchy fog dropping
visibilities to MVFR overnight tonight, but not enough
confidence in spatial extent of fog to place in any TAF.

Light and variable winds under 5 knots through the TAF period.
Winds turn generally northerly this afternoon before turning
generally southerly at the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible with scattered showers Thursday
night into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves are peaking late this afternoon with onshore winds
of 10-20 knots resulting in a moderate swim risk from Lorain County
eastward. Conditions will improve through the evening as high
pressure builds overhead and winds decrease to 10 knots or less by
Tuesday morning. The high will shift to the southeast through
Wednesday with southwest winds developing but may still see lake
breezes Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots return
Thursday ahead of a cold front that will settle south across Lake
Erie Thursday night into Friday. Winds behind the front look to be
15 knots or less as the shift around to the northeast and east
heading into Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...26/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...KEC