640
FXUS61 KCLE 271824
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
224 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over Lake Michigan will continue to move
northeast today, moving a cold front east across the area.
Additional weak cold front will move east tonight and Tuesday night
before high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front stretches from Lorain to Marion and will push east
through the afternoon hours and out of the forecast area by this
evening. Some showers and an isolated storm or two are developing
ahead of the front in Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA and will
be a short term threat for brief heavy rain and perhaps a stronger
wind gust. With the strong wind field in place across the region,
it may not be that difficult to get a quick burst of wind with
these small showers and storms. Otherwise, there will be wind
gusts to 40-45 mph through this evening with the cold front as
some stronger synoptic winds are being brought to the surface.
Behind the front, low clouds will enter the region as the
surface low occludes and moves northeast into Canada. Overall,
the area should be dry tonight behind the frontal passage, but
some weak convergence and residual moisture into NW PA may allow
for some minor rain chances.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, an upper trough will dig into the
Great Lakes region with a pair of shortwaves that will ripple
through the trough and enhance the flow. Another cold front will
move through the area on Tuesday with the upper trough and
scattered rain showers and perhaps some marginal thunder will be
possible on Tuesday. PoPs are fairly generic on Tuesday with
both the scattered nature of showers and not much to key in on
for specific timing at this time. Have PoPs increasing to likely
on Tuesday night with the main trough axis and cold front
pushing through, which should allow for a window that is more
favorable for rain. Temperatures through the period will be
cooler than normal with clouds and several shots of rain
preventing much heating with a cold air advection pattern. Lows
will be in the 50s tonight and Tuesday night and highs on
Tuesday will likely not reach 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft will push a series of
shortwaves and troughs across the area Tuesday night through the
daytime hours Wednesday. Scattered showers (possibly lake-enhanced
as 850mb temps drop to 5-7C) are likely during this time and can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms during peak heating Wednesday
afternoon. Although upper troughing will persist across eastern
zones into Thursday, surface high pressure building in from the
north/northwest will push a surge of dry air into the area Wednesday
evening. Dry weather should return no later than Wednesday night and
persist through the remainder of the short term period.

Cold air advection due to northwest flow will provide slightly below
normal temperatures through Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
areawide Wednesday with mid 60s to low 70s anticipated by Thursday.
The cooler temperatures will be a bit more noticeable overnight;
Tuesday night`s lows will be in the low to mid 50s, but temps
Wednesday and Thursday night will likely drop into the low to mid
40s with lower 50s more likely along the lakeshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place through the majority of the long
term period as a ridge builds east over the Midwest.
Shower/thunderstorm chances may return as early as Sunday or Monday
as southwesterly flow returns in response to the high shifting east
and the ridge axis pushes east of the CWA or the ridge flattens out.
Some long range guidance is hinting at a shortwave crossing the area
at some point late this weekend or early next week, but still far
too much uncertainty to have PoPs greater than slight chance to low-
end chance (~20-30%).

The high will allow temps to gradually moderate throughout the
period and temps will likely be above normal due to warm air
advection Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low
to mid 70s Friday, but anticipate highs in the upper 70s to low to
mid 80s by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
A mix of low VFR and MVFR clouds continue across the region as
low pressure moves northeast and a cold front swings through the
area. The wind field with the front has been impressive with
synoptic wind gusts to 35 kt around the region and the window
for stronger gusts to continue through this evening. A solid
area of MVFR is entering NW OH and should spread across the
terminals through this evening and have all TAFs trending down
over the next several hours. Some drier air will enter the
region from the southwest tonight and ceilings may improve again
to VFR for a brief period of time. Winds tonight will slowly
diminish with gusts slowing falling before disappearing. The
next system will approach from the northwest for Tuesday with
another cold front bringing rain chances and lower ceilings and
trends will be back to MVFR. Rain coverage will be scattered and
is difficult to key in on timing at this time and have vicinity
shower mentions for now.

Outlook...Periodic Non-VFR conditions may exist in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will lift across Lake Huron today and into southern
Quebec by this evening, sweeping a cold front east across Lake Erie
throughout the day today. Winds and waves have trended higher and
expect southwest winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid to late
morning before increasing to 20 to 30 knots and becoming westerly
behind the front this afternoon into this evening. Winds should
gradually diminish to 20 to 25 knots, but expect winds to around 20
knots through Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories and Beach
Hazards Statements are in effect starting late this morning into
Tuesday afternoon/early evening. The strong west/southwest flow will
likely cause water levels in the western basin to below the critical
mark of 19 inches above low water datum for a few hours this
afternoon into this evening and a Low Water Advisory has been issued
from 18Z/2 PM until 03Z/11 PM today.

Northwest winds will gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday
night into Wednesday before winds once again increase to 15 to 20
knots primarily in the central basin so another (albeit brief) round
of headlines will likely be needed until winds diminish to 15 knots
or less Wednesday night. Similar flow will continue through Friday
morning before winds become a bit lighter and more variable by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009-
     010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Maines