Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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233 FXUS61 KCLE 270030 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 830 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm front into the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. The low will linger over eastern Ontario on Monday night into Tuesday with another cold front being extended through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A line of showers and thunderstorms has cascaded through the area, fueled by an MCV that moved north through North Central Ohio. There is a limited area of real estate remaining along and ahead of this line for far NE OH, NW PA, and the eastern half of Lake Erie. Damaging winds and a brief tornado threat exists for the next hour or two until the Severe Thunderstorm Watch expires at 10 PM. Showers and storms have developed near Chicago and the main severe show for tonight has blossomed near St. Louis. This area will fill in over the next several hours and reach the forecast area after 2 AM. The round of convection this evening will have stabilized the local area and do not believe that the atmosphere will greatly recover to make the overnight round too problematic, but there is enough spin in the atmosphere and jet support where storms will need to be monitored through the overnight. Portions of previous discussion... All indications that this line will continue northeast through the forecast area and exit the far NW PA counties by Midnight. So far, there has been rather robust clearing behind the main line with a dominant cold pool and there should be a distinct multi-hour break in rain and thunderstorms for the area tonight. However, another round of more scattered convection will generate and move into the region, once there is some recovery. There will be better support further south and southwest, where there will be a larger recovery window, and storm coverage will be better outside of the forecast area. However, there will be some synoptic lifting mechanisms with the low to the northwest, cold front to the west, and the main upper trough aloft that should allow for some more thunderstorms to develop into the forecast area. Severe trends with these storms will be substantially lower than this afternoon/evening. Showers and storms will be possible through the first half of Monday until the cold front passes through the forecast area. The cold front will be through the forecast area on Monday night and have the forecast trending to dry. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low centered over Quebec will continue to eject multiple shortwave troughs across the region through the short term period. These shortwaves will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Best support for thunderstorms will be diurnally driven as MLCAPE values rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Highs on Tuesday rise into the lower 70s with overnight lows settling in the lower 50s. Cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Much quieter and drier weather in store for the long term as upper level ridging and surface high pressure build over the eastern CONUS. We`ll be dry through the bulk of the forecast period with our next chance for precipitation coming on Sunday as another shortwave approaches the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will climb through the long term with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s by the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... The main line of showers and thunderstorms has made it north of most of the terminals this evening with rain continuing at KMFD, KCLE, and KYNG and TS still possible at the KERI terminal. Storms will continue north over the next few hours and exit the forecast area. A mix of VFR to IFR ceilings will remain across the region in the wake of the storms. After a brief lull in convection overnight, additional showers and storms are expected to enter the region at/after 06z. These storms will likely not have the wind that this evening`s round had. However, another round of non-VFR will be expected with the storms, especially the southern terminals. Non-VFR ceilings will then firmly take over the region until a cold frontal passage on Monday afternoon, when ceilings will lift back to VFR. Winds are variable with the convection at this time, but will return to a southeast component. Winds will veer with time overnight and with the frontal passage with southwest winds with gusts to 30 kt possible on Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non- VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Low pressure centered over the Great Plains will lift a warm front north across the lake tonight. East winds 15-20 knots this afternoon turn south as the front lifts northward. The surface low moves northeast toward the Great Lakes region while dragging a cold front east across the lake on Monday. Winds turn southwesterly behind the front while increasing to 15-25 knots with waves across nearshore waters building to 4-6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Monday afternoon and evening into Tuesday. Additionally, hazardous swimming conditions with an increased risk for rip currents will be likely on Monday. Lingering surface troughing will remain draped over the lake through the middle of the week. High pressure builds in overhead from the northwest by mid week and will turn winds onshore at 10-15 knots through the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Iverson