Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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559 FXUS64 KCRP 040516 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for gulf facing beaches from Baffin Bay to Port OConnor from 9 PM this evening until 1 PM Tuesday. Tide levels are running approximately 1 foot above normal which may lead to minor coastal flooding during high tide overnight into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Messages: - Major to Extreme heat risk expected Tuesday for south Texas - Low chance of thunderstorms in the Rio Grande Plains tonight 500 mb trough is beginning to move to the east with clearing skies over the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country. Diurnal cu have formed along in the eastern part of the forecast area in the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Thunderstorms are beginning to fire along the Sierra Madre. Forecast: For tonight, We will be going into a rather, wash, rinse, repeat kind of pattern with the murky start of haze, humidity, and low clouds which break around mid to late morning. As the clouds clear in the afternoon, convection begins to fire along the Sierra Madre, and move into the Rio Grande Plains, where they will most likely fall apart. The chances are best near LRD (20-30% chances), and fall with time through the Brush Country and Coastal Plains overnight. Based on the last few nights, think that the storms will fall apart quickly losing the elevated heat source. Otherwise, the main concern is the heat. Heat indices in most places are peaking right around the 110-113 this afternoon, and based on the past few days, this should be the peak. A few locations may high 115 briefly, but not stay up for 2 hours. Temperatures overnight are expected to fall to around 80F in the Brush country, and the Rio Grande Valley. While along the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads, low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 80s. This leaves the apparent Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, especially along the Coastal Bend. So have opted to leave the heat advisory up overnight. The mid 90s to around 105 for Tuesday`s highs and the RH values during the time of high temperature of 40-65% will have many locations from the Coastal Plains and into the Brush Country with heat values above 115F (40-60% chance). So will expect some excessive heat that will have to be issued tomorrow morning for the afternoon. The Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend areas will be in a Heat advisory by then. Looking at the min apparent Ts Tuesday night, looks like all of that may have to be extended into Wednesday tomorrow as the apparent temperatures are 85 or better overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts Wednesday through Thursday. - Increased confidence for minor coastal flooding and rip currents by the middle of the work week. Overall, high pressure aloft will maintain control over the region through most of the Extended range, although a few weak impulses will be allowed to slide across. Rain chances will remain minimal, with less than a 20% chance in the forecast Wednesday and again Monday next week. Otherwise, rain-free conditions will persist across South Texas. Very hot and humid conditions will lead to a widespread Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related illnesses Wednesday through Thursday this week, and again Monday next week. There is a moderate to high chance (40-70%) of heat index values meeting or exceeding 115 degrees those days, and Advisories/Warnings are likely to be required as these conditions transition into the short-term period. With this in mind, please, plan your outdoor activities carefully and limit your time outdoors as much as possible. If outside, drink plenty of non-alcoholic fluids and take frequent breaks from the heat. Do not leave kids, pets or elderly people unattended in a car. The threat for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents continues Wednesday through Thursday in response to a persistent moderate to at times strong onshore flow offshore, elevated swells and the approach of the new moon. Currently P-ETSS is indicating tides reaching 2.0-2.2 ft MSL Wednesday and 1.8-2.0 ft Thursday. Advisories will likely be required especially along the Gulf-facing beaches south of Port Aransas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Storms in Mexico are diminishing as they move east across the Rio Grande Plains and are expected to continue to diminish over the next 2-4 hours. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are expected to prevail across a majority of S TX through the overnight hours. VFR conditions resume by mid to late Tuesday morning and continue through early Tuesday evening before lowering back down to MVFR. A diurnal trend will also continue with south to southeast winds gusting up to 25-30 knots in the afternoon and evening, then decreasing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight as an upper level disturbance passes through. Otherwise, a moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow will persist through the middle of week. Winds will increase over the southern bays and waters each afternoon, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Onshore flow gradually weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to moderate Thursday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 96 82 95 / 10 10 20 10 Victoria 80 95 79 96 / 10 0 30 10 Laredo 80 106 80 107 / 30 10 0 10 Alice 80 102 79 101 / 20 10 20 10 Rockport 82 92 82 91 / 10 0 20 0 Cotulla 80 107 81 105 / 20 20 20 10 Kingsville 81 100 81 99 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 84 92 84 91 / 10 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ229>231-239>243. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ232>234- 244>247-342>344-346-347. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...TE/81