951
FXUS61 KCTP 101927
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Today will be coldest day of the week with high temperatures
  5F to 15F below average for mid-June.
* Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, primarily north
  of I-80, and Tuesday afternoon in southeast PA, but most
  locations will stay dry.
* Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week
  as high pressure brings a stretch of rain- free weather with
  relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A potent shortwave aloft today will support more clouds than
sun over the higher terrain along with isolated showers across
the northern mountains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will
extend all the way into southeast PA thanks to a fair weather
stratocumulus deck from this afternoon into the early evening
hours.

Temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach 60 degrees
across the northern tier and remain in the 60s to mid 70s
elsewhere. These high temperatures will be 5F to 15F degrees
below average for mid- June. Add a northwest wind to the
relatively cool temperatures for this time of year and the
difference between being in the sun and in the shade will feel
very significant today. A few places could see wind gusts near
20mph before winds die down later this evening.

Clouds will taper off across much of the area tonight and another
cool night is in store. Lows will range from the mid 40s across
the Allegheny Plateau to the mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. A stray shower is possible near the Mason-Dixon line
late tonight as a weak surface trough traverses the region, but
no significant accumulation is expected. Patchy fog could
develop along the Laurel ridges and the north west mountains
tonight where dew point depressions will be lowest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough that has kept temperatures below normal will be
slow to exit the region on Tuesday. North or northwest winds
will continue to promote cold air advection, but the lack of as
much cold air aloft should result in fewer clouds and therefore
allow temperatures to trend 3 to 6 degrees warmer across higher
elevations Tuesday afternoon. Farther southeast, expect a
similar day as Monday with highs in the mid 70s. A stray shower
or storm is also possible Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure will begin to build in Tuesday night, which will
support clearing skies and calm winds. Patchy valley fog is
possible into Wednesday morning in the deepest valleys of
northwest PA. Overnight lows will turn the corner and begin
moderating Tuesday night ranging from the upper 40s in the
northwest to near 60 in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Looking at a warm up for the second half of the week, but
dewpoints will not add anything to the heat.

Other than Friday, most of the time will be dry for a change,
after a wet Spring.

Height falls could support some strong storms later on Friday,
but that will depend on timing, lee trough formation, and
moisture convergence. Highest dewpoints fcst to the southeast
of the best dynamics. Activity likely to weaken Friday evening,
as the cold front drops to the southeast.

Next weekend looks dry, as a northerly flow of dry air from
Canada is advected into our area. This could be key to the
fcst, as if one keeps advecting dry air into the area now and
then, this will aid in the upper level ridge building back in.

There could be a shower or storm later next Monday, as a more
humid airmass works eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR across much of the airspace today, with the exception
of the NW sites where low clouds will likely hold MVFR
conditions through tonight. Gusty winds will occur as a upper
level trough swings through central PA. Winds are not expected
to gust high enough to reach LLWS criteria, but sites today
could see gusts up to 25kts. Northwest winds will gradually
diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds in across the
Great Lakes.

Cloud will continue to build in through tonight, but most sites
should maintain VFR with ceilings likely to remain near
5000ft. Some lower clouds are possible across the west and north
of PA, and BFD will likely (~80%) keep its MVFR cigs through
tomorrow morning. Light patchy ridgetop fog could also develop
in the NW, but confidence is low enough to not mention it in
the BFD TAF.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions possible if afternoon/evening CB/TSRA
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Guseman/Bowen