853
FXUS61 KCTP 100306
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1106 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A cold front will pull east of the area overnight, ushering
  in a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
* Highs on Monday will be 5F to 15F below average for mid-June.
* Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week
  as high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with
  relatively low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Lingering showers are quickly diminishing during the late
evening hours, and should dissipate completely overnight.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air will be ushered in overnight
behind a secondary cold front, allowing low temperatures to
drop into the 40s in the northern tier and the mid to upper 50s
in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft will
support more clouds than sun over the higher terrain along with
isolated showers across the northern mtns. Monday will be the
coolest day of the week, as temperatures struggle to reach 60
degrees across the northern tier. Even the Lower Susq Valley
should only top out in the mid 70s. These high temperatures will
be 5F to 15F degrees below average for mid-June.

Another cool night is in store for Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s across the Allegheny Plateau to the mid
50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper-level troughiness will persist over the northeastern
United States into Tuesday, before the upper flow should become
more zonal for the second half of the week. This will allow the
cool temperatures early in the week to moderate significantly
during the second half of the week.

It looks like Thursday and Friday will be downright summer-like,
with highs topping 80 degrees areawide and even approaching or
topping the 90-degree mark in the valleys of south-central
Pennsylvania.

The next chance of showers and storms will be Friday, as a cold
front drops southeastward from the Great Lakes. High pressure
should build back in for next weekend, with a brief cool down
expected on Saturday before temperatures begin another upward
trend on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most TAF sites remain VFR with breezy conditions this evening.
A few showers crossing the airspace will pass with no reductions
at most airfields except KBFD. An area of showers will impact
the airfield through about 02Z/10, mainly with reduced vsby for
the next hour or so.

A secondary sfc cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of
cooler air and considerable cloudiness late tonight into
Monday. There is a high chance (~90%) that ceilings over the
western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR by
daybreak Monday, with a ~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings.
Restrictions will likely last through much of the day Monday.
Farther to the south and east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT)
could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley
(MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs likely, mainly north.

Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions poss with if afternoon/evening convection
develops.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego/Colbert
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Guseman/Gartner