012
FXUS61 KCTP 081543
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with
comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a couple chances
for showers on Sunday (one during the monring and the second
occurring mainly over the northern Mountains), expect a
reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend
toward the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered to broken cu have developed across much of central PA
this morning within a moist but deepening PBL. As the vertical
mixing increases to around 5 KFT AGL this afternoon, drier air
aloft will mix into the PBL, resulting in a decrease in the low
level cu later in the day. By that same time, upper level
cirrus will be working in from the west. The deeper mixing will
also help to transport WNW wind gusts of 20-25 mph to the
surface through the late afternoon hours. High temps will range
form near 70 in the north to the low 80s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a
dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers
late tonight into early Sunday morning as another shortwave
trough and cold front moves through the region.

The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the
state, where they are progged to begin around midnight. Rain
showers will then move eastward through central PA between
midnight and 8 AM Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage
across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. Most locations will see
less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the majority of the measurable
precip falling prior to 8 AM. A few showers will linger into the
mid-morning hours across the Lower Susq.

Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the
afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day.
There could be some isolated to scattered showers or
thundershowers in the northern tier during the afternoon and
evening (PoPs less than 40 pct), otherwise the afternoon looks
dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for
this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the
north to near 80 in the southern tier.

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days. The
approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front dropping
SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun, along with
some afternoon and evening showers across primarily the Central
and NW 2/3 of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After
that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late
week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of
moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will
struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive
troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by
late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by
Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited
at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern
provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture
gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance
that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail today with high pressure in control
and abundant sunshine. Winds will pick up again later this
morning. The depth of vertical mixing increases to 5-6 kft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon hours with peak gusts in the
20 to 25 mph range). Winds taper off Saturday night as ceilings
lower ahead of a fast moving cold front that will bring a chance
of a few showers Sunday (mainly during the morning hours). IFR
ceilings are likely at BFD before 12Z Saturday with MVFR
probable by 12Z at JST, AOO, UNV, and IPT. LLWS conditions may
also develop for a time as the cold front sweeps through Sunday
morning.

Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north and west of the Allegheny Front. A chance of a few
showers.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff