018
FXUS61 KCTP 080919
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
519 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with
comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a few rounds of
showers on Sunday (one during the monring and the second
occurring mainly over the northern Mountains), expect a
reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend
toward the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Skies have cleared out across much of the CWA for the time
being early this morning, as the axis of the mid level thermal
trough slides to the Delaware Valley.

Low temps around daybreak today will fall mainly in the 50-60F
range respectively from the Northern and Western high terrain to
the Lower Susq Valley.

Vertical mixing increasing to around 5 KFT AGL will help to
transport WNW wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range to the
surface during the late morning and afternoon hours today.

With the temporary departure of the cold pocket of air aloft,
afternoon max temps will be 4 or 5 deg F warmer than today
(Friday) with the NW Mtns seeing a 6-8 deg F rebound DOD.
Little day to day temp diff will be seen across the Lower Susq
Valley. This afternoon`s highs will be in the 70-80F range from
NW to SE across the CWA.

Cloud cover today will average generally under 20 percent

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a
dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers
very late tonight into Sunday morning as another shortwave
trough and cold front moves through the region.

The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the
state, and gradually diminish in coverage across the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley. Continued breezy and relatively cool for
this time of year with max/min temps near to below the
historical avg. for early June.

Temps Sunday will dip just a little compared to those on
Saturday. Another moderately breeze day is in store for Sunday
with gusts from the WNW in the low to mid 20s (MPH).

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days.
The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front
dropping SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun,
along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily
the Central and NW 2/3rds of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States
will keep temperatures below normal through Tuesday. After that,
we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week.

There could be some showers by late week, as cold fronts drop
southeastward across the area. Low level moisture appears to be
limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a
pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if
moisture gets advected into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will gradually weaken as we head into the late evening
hours. Expect CIGS (consisting mainly of high based stratocu and
alto cu) to remain VFR across most of the region. A brief
period of MVFR ceilings is possible at BFD, but opted to leave
it out of the TAFs based on latest upstream observations. Patchy
valley fog will likely develop along and north of I-80 where
rain occurred today and clear skies develop overnight. Have
added vicinity fog to UNV where a quick rain shower around
1130PM at the site may have brought just enough moisture to
create fog toward daybreak.

Winds will pick up again on Saturday just after sunrise. The
depth of vertical mixing increases to 5-6 kft AGL in the late
morning and afternoon hours with peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph
range). Winds taper off Saturday night as ceilings lower ahead
of a fast moving cold front that will bring a chance of a few
showers Sunday (mainly during the morning hours).

Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north and west of the Allegheny Front. A chance of a few
showers.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff