Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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030 FXUS63 KDDC 071653 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1153 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - First 100-degree heat forecast This afternoon (60-90% probability of exceedance 100+ degrees for Liberal, Elkhart, Johnson, Hugoton, Ulysses, Garden City, Scott City, Dighton, Meade, Dodge City, Jetmore, Ness City). - Widely Scattered early morning showers and thunderstorms mainly between Ark River and Oklahoma line, followed by another chance of storms later in the afternoon and Tonight. Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe weather - Increased likelihood of large thunderstorm system Saturday Night with probability of precipitation increased to 60% for much of the southwest Kansas region and as high as 70 percent in the west. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A broad 1015 hPa surface high was dominating the region this morning. A stationary boundary to the south of Kansas was a focus for decaying thunderstorms. The best mid level winds were across the Missouri valley and eastern Kansas as weak easterly upslope winds at the surface in western Kansas were juxtaposed with a strong moisture/temperatures/CAPE gradient directed into the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. The aforementioned anticyclone centered over the central Plains This morning will shift into the Mississippi valley over the next 24 hours, intensifying the lee troughing over Colorado. A resultant height gradient develops Today with initial burst of warm air advection over the southwest this morning and increasing surface winds due to both gradient and mixing. A few shower and thunderstorms may (low chances around 20%) develop along the developing warm front from Scott City and Garden city eastward as the day progresses. Hot temperatures equal or in excess of 100 degrees are forecast for most of the area west of highway 283 will be a result of the full insolation, and downslope of an already warm airmass of descending air parcels from the western high plains. That warmup will follow a brief morning window of 30% probability for rain in thunderstorms probabilities that will shift into the Greensburg, Pratt Coldwater to Medicine Lodge areas in the early afternoon hours. Marginal severe weather risk returns on a limited areal coverage basis (5% wind and hail probability) as early as 5 pm in the extreme west and moving east across the area through the late evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Saturday look much more convectively active. The global deterministic models GFS/EC/Canadian all three generate an inverted trough or surface low across the NE New Mexico/Panhandles region that expends northeast into southwest and south central Kansas by midday. And by the same times, same models have western Kansas increasingly under a 500 mb level right jet entrance region and equatorward advancing colder airmass out of the northern Plains. However the location tracks for evening MCS activity are all different with respect to max rains but these deterministic models do show localized 1 inch or more bullseye of max mean rainfall somewhere between the I-70 corridor and hwy 400/54 corridors. The GFS ensemble is showing a strongly trending heavy rain signal for highest amounts farther south over the KS/OK line and the Liberal area for mean amounts in excess of 2 inches. Sunday and Monday bring an overall respite from the hot weather of Friday, as highs are forecast in the 70s. Sunday may wind up cool and cloudy following the Saturday night MCS activity as easterly upslope flow reinforces the cloud production and Monday looks equally influenced by the recirculating aid from the northern plains surface high. The period into Tuesday look highly uncertain but still potentially wet with convection any given day but without any organized severe as the split flow jets leave Kansas under light winds in the mid levels. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Small clusters of showers and weak thunderstorms were pushing east away from DDC and HYS terminals at the onset of this TAF period. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest during the afternoon, topping out 20 to 25 knots sustained for a few hours late in the afternoon prior to surface-based thunderstorms developing across far southwest Kansas. This new TAF will refine the thunderstorm forecast, going with a 3-hr period of VCTS in the early to mid evening hours. Winds are expected to be quite gusty near thunderstorms. By late evening, thunderstorm risk will move east of southwest and west central Kansas with fairly light winds expected the remainder of the night. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Umscheid