Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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020 FXUS63 KDDC 091727 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures expected today. - Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest Kansas Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building as it transitions east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing south through the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Lingering showers early this morning are expected to give way to Tranquil conditions through the remainder of the period as the SREF indicates ridging aloft continuing to slowly build as it drifts eastward through the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. A weakening flow aloft and a lack of instability present as surface high pressure dominates the Upper Midwest/Central Plains will hinder precip chances (<10%) through tonight. Well below normal temperatures are forecast today as dominating surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a cooler air mass settled across southwest/central Kansas with H85 temperatures holding around to a little above 15C. The HREF indicates a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F farther east. For tonight, there is a 20-30% probability of temperatures dropping below 60F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 80-90% probability of lows falling below 60F in central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Minimal shower/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) are forecast Monday and Tuesday as medium range ensembles show a weak upper level shortwave trough sliding southeast out of the Southern Rockies into panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas. A prevailing southeasterly upslope flow on the back side of a departing surface high will draw ample moisture into western Kansas, pushing dewpoints well up into the 50s(F) Monday, and farther up into the 60s(F) Tuesday. Although a prevailing flow aloft will remain relatively weak, steepening mid-level lapse rates and sufficient instability in an axis of low level convergence associated with a lee side trough will support the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm development both days. According to the NBM, the best chance for thunderstorms will be across extreme southwest Kansas Monday and farther east near and along the Oklahoma border Tuesday where there is a 20-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch. A drier pattern sets up mid-week as ridging aloft builds northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. Below normal temperatures continue Monday as a cooler air mass is slow to erode behind departing surface high pressure. The NBM paints only a 20-30% probability of temperatures climbing above 80F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-80% probability of higher than 80F in central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures return mid-week with the NBM indicating a 70-80% probability of highs exceeding 85F in central Kansas to 90% probability of temperatures topping 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 BUFR soundings and the latest short term models are in good agreement that the low clouds, ceilings below 2000ft AGL, at 18z today will slowly erode early tonight at Dodge City, Garden City, and Hays. In Liberal, it looks like moisture and lift occurring north of a surface boundary will result in some lingering MVFR ceiling conditions through Monday. Currently, the latest short-term models have ceilings in the Liberal area ranging from 2,000 ft AGL to 3,500 ft AGL. The chance for ceilings to be below 3,000 ft is 20% to 40% after 21Z Today. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots this Sunday afternoon will decrease to less than 10 knots and become southeast by 12Z Monday as an area of high pressure builds into western Kansas overnight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Burgert