Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
627 FXXX12 KWNP 291231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 29 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to M1/Sf flares at 29/0106 UTC and 29/0645 UTC from Region 3697 (S19E69, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). Slight growth was observed in the group as it rotated further into view. Region 3691 (N26E15, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) also produced an M1 flare at 29/1121 UTC. The region exhibited slight growth and consolidation in its leading spots. The rest of the spot groups were relatively stable or in decay. A halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 29/0148 UTC. This event was determined to be far-sided. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely reach moderate levels with a few M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) while maintaining a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong Radio Blackouts) through 31 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 31 May. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 31 May primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters showed a mild enhancement after 29/0430 UTC. Total field increased to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased to approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component was mostly north ranging from -1 nT to +8 nT. Phi angle was positive. .Forecast... An enhancement in the solar wind environment due to an indirect shock arrival from the 27 May X2.8 flare event may arrive by late 29 May. The solar wind environment is expected to return to ambient-like levels over the course of 30 May and remain there through 31 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Isolated active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, are possible late on 29 May with any shock arrival from the 27 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 May as any lingering shock effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated to prevail on 31 May.