Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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506 FXUS63 KDLH 261734 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1234 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday over portions of the Northland. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low. - A dry period will occur for most Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today into Tuesday... Showers were occurring from southwest Minnesota into the Twin Ports early this morning (as of 3AM) and this is in response to a frontal boundary, FGEN, and an upper trough. This band of showers is forecast to lift north through the morning and we relied on higher resolution models for timing/location. There will also be a more southern shortwave and surface low that will lift into eastern Wisconsin by this evening and spread more chances for showers to northwest Wisconsin today. QPF from this system has come down for northwest Wisconsin compared to earlier forecasts and there is good agreement among most of the models that the higher amounts will be further south and east of northwest Wisconsin. There will be some instability today with a chance for a few thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected. The showers will diminish Sunday night. Areas of fog are expected to develop Sunday night, especially around Lake Superior and the fog may be dense in spots. There is good agreement that another shortwave will swing through the upper trough, which will have a center in northwest Ontario at 12Z Monday. This shortwave will aid in producing another round of showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day with chances (60-70%) greatest from Walker and the Brainerd Lakes southeast through Aitkin, Hinckley, and Siren. Chances taper off to the northeast of there. The upper low will drop south into the Northland on Tuesday with cooler air moving in with it. More showers and thunderstorms will occur. Heavy rain is not expected today through Tuesday with amounts for most less than a half inch. Some localized higher amounts will occur though. Highs today and Monday will be in the sixties for most, cooler around the lake today. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the upper fifties to lower sixties. Wednesday through Thursday... An upper ridge will move into the region mid-week with surface high pressure and drier air. All areas are expected to be dry on Wednesday with highs in the sixties. The latest NBM brought in chances for showers and storms for Thursday. We lowered those chances, especially for the eastern half of the Northland. The global models are drier and scanning the 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF, there is support for drier conditions into Thursday for most of the Northland. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper sixties to lower seventies but be cooler around the lake at times. Friday... There is decent agreement among the global models in bringing a better chance for showers/storms late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR until tonight when a push of cool, humid air off of Lake Superior is progged to bring fog and low stratus in addition to a bit gustier east winds at KDLH and perhaps KHIB while locations away from the lake should remain VFR. An incoming system from the west begins to bring rain to KBRD towards the end of the TAF period. Confidence is increasing in the Lake Superior push of poor flight conditions after 00-06Z tonight, the timing of the onset is the biggest question remaining. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Easterly winds will continue or develop today and be from 8 to around 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. The wind will be highest in the Twin Ports area but we don`t think we`ll quite reach Small Advisory thresholds but we`ll have to keep a close eye on things. Winds will back to more northerly tonight and decrease a bit then back to westerly on Memorial Day and be from 8 to 15 knots. Northwest winds will strengthen some Tuesday and be from 10 to 20 knots, conditions may become hazardous for smaller vessels on Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Melde