673
FXUS63 KDLH 071152
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny, dry, and seasonably warm today

- Showers are likely (70% chance) tonight and lingering into
  Saturday. A few non-severe thunderstorms will be possible
  Saturday afternoon

- Temperatures gradually warm up next week with on-and-off
  chances for showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today:
Clouds have been steadily decreasing this morning with drier air
and upper level ridging advancing towards the Northland from the
west. This will lead to mostly sunny to perhaps partly cloudy
skies today with seasonably mild high temperatures in the low
70s. A fairly tight pressure gradient will be in place today,
and a deeply-mixed lower atmosphere will lead to breezy west to
northwest winds (up to around 20 mph for most places, but near
25 to 30 mph in the Arrowhead). The deep mixing will also likely
promote some fairly low dew points and relative humidity this
afternoon. Decided to blend towards the 10th percentile as model
guidance definitely favors a well-mixed and dry lower
atmosphere. There is a little uncertainty with the recent
rainfall on how dry it could get, but leaning dry with this
synoptic setup seems reasonable.

Friday Night into Saturday:
An upper-level trough will approach from MB/SK tonight and bring
rain to most of the region starting after sunset for most. This
will be an almost exclusively synoptically-driven "blob" of
rain with very little instability. Rainfall amounts are not
expected to be exceptional...totals around a tenth to three
tenths of an inch for the most part. As the primary synoptic
lift moves east mid-day Saturday, a bit of clearing could
promote some scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon. Instability will be limited to just a few
hundred J/kg, so any storms are expected to be sub-severe.

Sunday:
Another upper-level trough is expected to pass through on
Sunday, albeit associated with drier air. There could be some
scattered showers at times, but otherwise a pretty quiet weather
day with some mixed clouds and sun.

Monday and beyond:
Most models are in relative agreement on high pressure and
sunshine on Monday. Going into Tuesday, models diverge on the
potential for an upper-level trough and some attendant
rain/thunder chances. In any case, the general trend from
Tuesday onward will be the development of more southerly flow,
warm air advection, and a wavy upper-level pattern that should
promote on-and-off rain chances. Temperatures should start to
trend upward such that highs around 80 may become the norm
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected today with high pressure leading to
mostly sunny skies. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected
with frequent gusts around 20 kt. Around sunset this evening,
clouds will increase from the west with rain moving in. For most
places, rain will start around 06Z, but there are some models
hinting at start times a few hours earlier. The rain may result
in occasional MVFR visibilities with moderate to heavy rates
embedded within broader light rain. There may be some MVFR
ceilings towards the tail end of the period as well as rain
departs to the east. Minnesota terminals may see most of the
rain end by around 10z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light west to southwest winds out there this morning are
expected to increase in speed today from the west to northwest.
Speeds from 5 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will be common. Parts
of the North Shore are expected to see gusts to 25 kt at times.
The highest confidence is from Silver Bay through Grand Portage,
and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued there through the
afternoon. Stronger west/northwest wind gusts are going to be
more likely along the immediate shoreline from downsloping flow
along the North Shore terrain. Wave heights 2 ft or less
everywhere except the Outer Apostle Islands, where north-facing
islands could see wave heights approach 3 to 4 ft at times
today. Wind speeds decrease tonight as rain moves in from the
west. Wind direction will continue to be westerly through
Saturday with gusts remaining 20 kt or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS