Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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233 FXUS63 KDLH 271803 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 103 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 746 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled as the patchy dense fog in the Twin Ports and along parts of the South Shore has dissipated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog this morning will disperse by late morning. - Rain showers enter from the west today with some isolated thunderstorms possible (20-30%). No severe weather is anticipated. - Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow (20- 40%). - Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with frost possible both mornings. Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed morning and NW WI for Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Current conditions: Satellite this morning is picking up on some fog development along the South Shore and into the lower basin south of Superior. A few sensors across the region are also reporting some intermittent reductions in visibilities. Not nearly as widespread as models had suggested over the past several runs with the recent runs now vastly backing off the coverage. Based off current trends we have trimmed the Dense Fog Advisory a bit. Some patchy fog can still be expected across the region as dewpoint depressions are largely within 1 degree and winds remain light. Any fog that does manage to develop over the next few hours will not linger long through the morning. Today: Radar shows and expansive line of precipitation advancing across western MN this morning propelled by and upper level trough digging across the Northern Plains. Rain will enter the Brainerd Lake region after sunrise and spread east through the day. PWATs remain less then an 1" which is to be expected as we lack a strong moisture connection with this system. This will lead to scattered rain showers producing less then a quarter inch of rain. The exception will be any location that manages to see an isolated thunderstorm roll over. Instability does increase a bit in the afternoon but lack of shear to work with will lead to storms quickly collapsing on themselves. No severe weather is anticipated at this time. Tuesday: Tuesday will see an upper level low diving southeast out of Ontario and through the Northland. Cyclonic turning aloft infused with low and mid level moisture will lead to a vast cumulus field enveloping the region. Scattered to numerous amounts of showers will envelop the Northland. Instability and shear are similar to the previous day with enough for some rumbles of thunder but overall short-lived. Mid Week Frost: High pressure builds in for Wednesday allowing for a break in the repetitive precipitation patterns. However, this will lead to some frost concerns as this air mass ushers in some cooler temperatures. Frost Advisories may be needed Wed morning across northern MN and again Thursday morning for NW WI. Extended Forecast: Active weather is expected to return towards the end of the week as the upper level ridge weakens and is pushed out of the region from a deepening trough across the northern Rockies. Timing still remains in flux as escorting the dry air that will be in place seems to be causing ensembles some difficulties. Based on cluster analysis we can expect the next active pattern to persist into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Main aviation concern are rain showers moving slowly from west to east this afternoon. There is a window for thunderstorm development this afternoon especially if the clouds clear out through sunset. No severe weather is expected. Main hazards will be lightning and temporary MVFR visibilities. Wind N/NW less than 10 mph. Rain showers possible again in the morning (~8Z) as a second upper level wave moves by, mainly affecting KDLH and HKYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 746 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light winds today with minimal wave action. Light northwest winds persist into Tuesday, although some gusts up to 10 to 15 knots can be expected tonight into Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rothstein DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...LR MARINE...Rothstein