010
FXUS63 KDMX 061940
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory in effect for the rest of this afternoon. Gusts
  up to 50 mph possible along with localized areas of blowing
  dust along roadways, leading to reduced visibilities.

- Marginal risk for severe weather for storms arriving Friday
  night. Hail and wind the primary threats. Heavy rain possible
  and looks to be placed just south of the state, at this time.

- Periodic chances for precipitation under seasonal high
  temperatures for much of next week. Hotter temperatures arrive
  by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northwest flow continues today with an area of high pressure moving
in from the northwest. As this deepens across Nebraska today, the
pressure gradient will increase. The upper level low center will sag
into the Great Lakes region and increase winds aloft as well with
850 and 700mb winds valued between 35 and 40kts can be found
especially across the north this afternoon. Winds at these
levels are not as pronounced compared to the 50kt+ winds found
this morning, but sustained Wind Advisory winds can still be
found across the north this afternoon due to efficient mixing
in the dry PBL. Gusts exceeding 50mph have been recorded.
Channels of blowing dust have formed across some roadways, with
reduced visibilities causing disruptions to traffic. Caution
should be used if entering one of these areas of blowing dust.
With the influence of the upper level low, some cumulus clouds
can be found in the northeast, but with high enough clouds
bases, not expecting any rainfall out of these clouds.

Beneath the persistent upper-level northwest flow, some ridging will
nudge southwesterly winds into the state by midday. Pacific
moisture will be carried with an incoming shortwave. An H85
trough will build in the Plains Friday evening and contain the
low level jet in Kansas, veering into Missouri overnight.
Consequently, low level moisture will build in the southwest.
There, MUCAPE values will near 1000 J/kg with 50kts of deep
layer shear. An overnight thunderstorm complex will move along
that instability gradient, sagging southeastward as the jet
noses into Missouri. Expecting storms to be elevated in nature
with wind and hail the main convective threats. The progressive
nature of the storms will spare southwest Iowa from training
storms in an otherwise primed heavy rain environment. PWATs will
near 2 inches with warm cloud depths over 10kft. CAPE profiles
are elongated and skinny, favorable for droplet collision and
coalescence processes. The HREF PMM QPF has rainfall amounts
locally up to 3 inches in the main swath of the WAA wing. Right
now, the heaviest rain looks to be displaced to the south of the
state with values in southwest Iowa remaining generally under
an inch, but trends will continue to be monitored.

Rain will fill in the north late Friday night in association with a
passing shortwave with some reinvigoration of showers along the
trailing front during the daytime Saturday, prolonging precipitation
chances, albeit appearing light at this time. Some uncertainty
remains in Sunday`s weather as 12z deterministic guidance differs in
how it handles the evolution of a shortwave diving down from Canada
and into the Northern Plains. It should be noted that the 12z GFS
solution appears to be an outlier, at this time. Until the broad
upper level troughing departs, temperatures will remain in the
low 80s next week. An eventual warmup into the 90s will come
once the ridge is allowed to build in. Similarly, while under
the influence of northwest flow, periodic rain chances will
linger into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR cigs and vsbys to continue through the period. Primary
concern for the next 6 hours will be wind gusts for northern
terminals, especially KMCW and KALO. Gusts at these two sites
will be highest in the next 4 hours where peak gusts up to 45kts
are possible. Gusts up to 40kts will be possible through 23z
for these sites. KDSM, KFOD and KOTM will see gusts up to 35kts
at times through 23z. Winds will ease after sunset and shift to
southwesterly at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-047>050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez