736
FXUS63 KEAX 020855
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected between now and Tuesday
night.  A few stronger storms could produce wind gusts to 60 mph or
large hail to the size of half dollars.

- Storm on Monday into Tuesday could carry a heavy rain threat.

- Drier, less humid conditions expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low confidence forecast in terms of timing of convection the next
three days.  Unstable atmosphere with several weak embedded
shortwaves in the zonal flow could ignite periods of thunderstorms
across the region.  Much of the region remains outlooked for the
potential for a few strong storms the next three days.

In the shorrt term, areas of dense fog have begun to develop
across central into eastern Missouri. Have issued a small dense
fog advisory through 15Z, when low level saturation should begin
to mix out as easterly winds become more southeasterly and
increase in speed.

Broken line of thunderstorms have formed in eastern Kansas embedded
within a broad area of low level warm air advection and within a
weak 15-20 knot low level jet across the central plains.  This area
of warm air/low level moisture advection is expected to spread east
through the morning hours, creating the potential for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern KS into western Missouri.  These storms
are relatively slow moving (~10-15 knots), but should approach the
KS/Missouri border near sunrise.  Instability is largely limited to
the KS/Missouri border and areas west; however, this instability
expands with diurnal heating and a ready supply of moisture from the
Gulf as southerly flow increases. Given this is the case, expect to
see dew points climb into the mid and upper 60s throughout the
day.

Tough call on how thunderstorms will play out today.  HRRR does not
have a good handle on the current convection.  NAM NEST is slightly
better, and shows waves of convection building into the region,
especially north of I-70, throughout the day. HREF has convection
dying by 15Z, but think this trend could be overcome if there is
ample moisture available near 850 mb, otherwise the capping
inversion may hold through the better part of the day. With
uncertainty, have broad brushed pops through the day.  With
increasing instability and shear, could see a marginally strong storm
or two, mainly confined to eastern KS into the western few tiers of
counties in Missouri.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon along a cold front across western Nebraska.  These storms
may grow into an MCS tonight across Nebraska as the low level
jet increases, potentially building into the region towards 06Z
tonight. With strong low level jet tonight of 40-50 knots and
the linear mode, the main severe threat with these storms will
be damaging winds.

Additional storms are possible on Monday as the thunderstorms weaken
as they move deeper south and east potentially creating an outflow
boundary to focus convection chances, but with additional mid level
disturbances moving across the central US, hard to focus on a
specific area or time for thunderstorms. Instability continues to
grow throughout the day with surface heating, though wind shear
remains very weak. Given PWAT values of 1.5"+, deep warm cloud
depths, and weak winds in the mid levels, any storms that form would
pose a flash flood risk.

A strong shortwave is expected to move into the Pacific NW on Monday
and quickly moving east into the Northern Plains on Tuesday.  The
cold front is expected to approach the region Tuesday night.  With
muggy airmass, could see surface based CAPE values approach 3K by
late in the day. while mid level wind shear remains better farther
north, still could have pulsy strong updrafts or organized line
segments/clusters that produce areas of enhanced wind across the
region Tuesday night. This front should effectively  push the low
level moisture southward keeping the second half of the week much
quieter than the next few days. With northwest flow hanging on into
the weekend, seasonal temperatures are expected with minimal chances
of rain after Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Could see some dense fog across central Missouri through 15Z
back into the region with light easterly flow near the surface.
This should burn off through the morning hours. A more
consistent southeast wind will develop through the morning
hours, potenially becoming marginally gusty through the
afternoon hours. The big unknown in this pattern is when
convection will be focused through the period. With such high
uncertainty, left mention out of the TAFs but this doesn`t imply
there is no threat. Once timing is more clear, an update will be
needed.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ017-025.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT