Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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203 FXUS63 KEAX 261936 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 236 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The threat for severe storms has diminished with isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon. Gusty winds, small hail and lightning will be main hazards. - Quieter weather expected for Memorial Day through Wednesday, with seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The initial round of storms overnight has hindered the convective environment to today`s activity as it`s been more difficult to recover. Thus the threat for severe storms has diminished as we moved from slight and enhanced risk in Central Missouri down to marginal risk and even general thunderstorms along the state line of Missouri and Iowa. This means that only the isolated to scattered coverage possible for this afternoon has diminished and expecting main hazard threat if any storms develop to will be gusty winds, small hail and lighting. As for the probability of precipitation has been lowered to 20 to 40% with the best potentials in the far northwestern portions of Missouri and northeastern Kansas and along the boundary to our southern counties from Cooper to Miami and southward counties. As of 130 pm radar reflectivity showed some isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving northeast across northern Kansas. The surface low at 130 pm is located near the junction of northwest OK, southwest MO, and southeast KS with the boundary across central MO as seen in the visible satellite imagery with the cu cloud cover. Redevelopment of storms will primarily be along the boundary as radar reflectivity return already see line extending from Ottawa to Lawrence to Sedalia. Additionally the flood watch was cancelled across Kansas and central Missouri earlier this morning. However we will still have to monitor certain location such as the 102 River near Maryville and Rosendale and the Platte River at Agency which show rise water level through Tuesday but should still remain within action stages. Quieter weather arrives on Memorial Day. A couple of mid/upper level troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest, pivoting toward the Great Lakes region through Tuesday, keeping us under northwest flow aloft and expecting some weak cold fronts through the region. This flow will temperatures near seasonal normals along with reasonably comfortable humidity levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s through Wednesday. As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will persist across the forecast period at all terminals with westerly to northwesterly winds around 10 knots. There is a slight chance for isolated showers and storms (15- 20%) from KMCI and southward this afternoon, but chances are too low to even mention. There is a chance of thunderstorms for KSTJ between 22z and 01z but only mentioned VCTS. The potential for severe thunderstorms has diminished across the entire area. Expect more quiet and seasonal weather for the terminals for Memorial day. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAK AVIATION...MAK