Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
712 FNUS74 KEPZ 050408 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for GRAVEL FIRE...USFS GILA NF National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1008 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0500 MDT on June 05. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Poor to moderate overnight recoveries are expected tonight before another dry day with above normal warmth. Winds will be light and variable tonight, largely favoring draining flow regime. By afternoon, winds become northwesterly, topping out around 10 MPH. Periods of high clouds tonight will gradually clear making for mostly clear skies in the morning. By afternoon though, expect cumulus build-ups with an outside shot for a shower though with little wetting rain. Moisture begins to increase tomorrow night, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday though with little wetting rains. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 54. Max humidity........40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 5 AM Sky (%).........21 Weather cov.....NONE Weather type....NONE Tstm cov........NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 LAL.............1 Temp............54 RH..............40 20 ft wind......NW 3 20 ft wind gust.7 Mix hgt (ft)....600 Transport wind..N 12 Haines index....4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 Ventrate Cat....POOR .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 89. Min humidity........11 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north to northwest around 8 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL increasing to 13700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....North 6 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (78800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........8 8 3 11 11 24 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............54 65 75 82 87 89 RH..............36 28 21 16 12 11 20 ft wind......NW 3 NW 3 N 4 N 8 N 10 NW 10 20 ft wind gust.7 7 8 12 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....3100 3100 11300 11300 13700 13700 Transport wind..N 12 N 12 N 9 N 9 NW 6 NW 6 Haines index....4 4 4 5 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..41 41 74 74 79 79 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 57. Max humidity........35 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......12900 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (77100 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........42 27 24 21 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............85 71 64 60 RH..............13 23 29 34 20 FT wind......SW 5G8 W 3G7 NW 2G5 NW 2G3 Mix hgt (ft)....12900 12900 600 600 Transport wind..W 10 W 10 W 7 NW 5 Haines index....6 5 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..77 77 4 3 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 90. Min humidity........12 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 7 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL increasing to 15200 ft AGL in the late morning and afternoon. Transport winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south 7 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (113000 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to very good (141800 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........26 24 38 Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 30 LAL.............1 1 4 Temp............57 77 88 RH..............35 20 12 20 FT wind......N 2G5 E 3G8 S 7G13 Mix hgt (ft)....2800 15200 14600 Transport wind..NE 6 SE 7 S 13 Haines index....6 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 113 142 Ventrate Cat....POOR VYGD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. .SATURDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY... Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 7 mph. $$ Forecaster...BROWN Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2415631.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV