Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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080 FXUS62 KFFC 061533 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1133 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 As expected the shower and thunderstorm activity that moved into the metro area have mostly fallen apart. It`s remnants are approaching the border of GA and AL just west of CSG. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the SW area of the CWA until some better instability can build early this afternoon with our diurnal heating pattern. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with an earlier MCS swept across the Atlanta metro area overnight, and his since totally fallen apart. A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms is presently marching E across central AL. Due to the effects of the earlier MCS and outflow, high resolution models appear to be having a difficult time resolving current activity. The upstream convection is associated with an approaching shortwave and attendant surface front. Uncertainty abounds as the upstream convection approaches a less favorable initial environment. Forecast models bring the bulk of the dynamic support with the shortwave SE toward the Gulf Coast and the N Gulf of Mexico. However, the NBM (model blend) suggests convection will expand across the area later this morning. Have opted to scale back initial PoPs a bit, with a gradual increase through the day as the influence of earlier convection wanes, instability increases, and the frontal boundary sweeps into the area. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a few storms may become strong. The first cold front may briefly stall across the S portion of the County Warning Area later today. A reinforcing cold front will move across the area tonight, driving remaining rain out of the area and ushering in much drier air. High temperatures today will from the upper 70s across the NE mountains to the lower 90s SE of Macon. Cooler air behind the secondary front will only make it into the extreme N prior to sunrise. As a result, low temperatures Friday morning will range from near 60 in the NE to the lower 70s in the extreme SE. High temperatures on Friday will range from the mid 70s in the NE mountains to the lower 90s in the S. Although Friday`s temperatures will be similar to today`s, relative humidity values will be 20 to 30 percent lower, making for more comfortable conditions. /SEC SEC && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The long-term period will start off Friday night and Saturday with high pressure and a dry, continental airmass in the wake of the cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion. Dew points on Saturday will be the 50s area-wide under a mostly sunny sky. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, and afternoon highs will be in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Both lows and highs will be a few degrees cooler in the mountains. Sunday through the middle of next week, expansive upper-level troughing will be situated across the eastern third or so of the CONUS. Disturbances within the troughing aloft along with renewed moisture advection and daytime heating will support isolated to scattered showers and storms each day (mainly in the afternoon and evening). The GEFS depicts the greatest probabilities for CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg across central Georgia each day. Ensemble guidance depicts 30-40 kts of surface-to-500mb bulk shear across portions of the CWA Sunday night through Tuesday night as a disturbance/speed max traverses the base of the trough. Each day will bring the potential for strong storms with gusty to localized damaging winds, small hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud- to-ground lightning. Widespread severe weather does not appear likely, but an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out each day. QPF for the long-term period ranges from less than 0.10" to around 0.30" but localized greater totals are possible with any especially efficient storms and/or training storms. Sunday afternoon highs will be in the 80s across north Georgia and in the 90s across central Georgia (with cooler temps in the mountains). Highs on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Martin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A broken line of showers extends from NW GA to central AL, where it becomes a more solid line with embedded thunderstorms. Have included VCSH early this morning for Atlanta area terminals. Additionally, IFR cigs have develops across a large area of N and central GA. A cold front will move into the area later today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and S of the front. The HRRR is not overly optimistic on storm development, but there should be enough destabilization during the afternoon to couple with weak dynamic forcing. Most of this activity should develop S of the Atlanta metro and AHN areas. Light SW winds will veer to more westerly by afternoon with some gusts near 20 knots. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium regarding thunderstorm redevelopment coverage and timing, high for other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 86 60 87 / 20 0 0 0 Atlanta 68 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 77 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 91 63 91 / 10 10 0 0 Gainesville 67 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 70 91 63 91 / 10 10 0 0 Rome 65 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 67 87 60 89 / 10 0 0 0 Vidalia 73 93 68 91 / 30 20 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...SEC