Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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Spot Forecast for Juniper P15 East...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions will be mostly dry and calm today. RH values will fall
from near 80 percent this morning down to around 40 percent by 2pm
and bottom out around 36 percent by 5pm. Skies will be scattered in
the morning, clearing through the afternoon. Winds will be
consistent from the East at 2 to 7 mph, gusting up to 10 mph. A few
isolated and small thunderstorms are possible after 12pm. Winds in
and around thunderstorms could briefly become gusty and erratic. No
significant differences between surface winds, 20ft winds, and
transport winds. RH values begin climbing near 8pm. Winds after
sunset quickly become light and variable, staying as such through
much of tomorrow. No significant topographical effects expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent early in
                    the afternoon, then decreasing to 10 percent
                    late in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 2 until 1500, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Dewpoint............65 decreasing to 61 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 73 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 5.0 late in the morning
                    increasing to 25 late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 7.0.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  26  24  27  27  27  22  14  17
Weather cov.....                    SCH
Weather type....                    RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   10  20  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   1   1   1
Temp............77  81  84  86  88  89  90  91  91
Dewpoint........67  67  66  64  63  62  62  62  61
RH..............71  63  54  48  43  41  39  38  36
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  10  12  13  12  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.7 6.3 6.4 6.8 6.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   9   10  12  10  10  9   8   7
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   33  50  61  73  72  69  67  61
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9   26  35  40  51  56  53  47  45
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...20  25  4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 25  7.0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Dewpoint............62.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 40.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......7.0 increasing to 25 late in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........15     15     20     9      3      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............91     88     81     77     75     72
Dewpoint........61     63     62     63     62     63
RH..............37     43     54     61     65     73
20 ft wind......E 6    E 3    E 3    E 3    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.10     6      6      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....5200   200    200    200    200    200
Transport wind..E 6    E 5    E 3    E 3    E 3    E 3
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.............40     2      1      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     1      1      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...7.0    7.0    7.0    25     25     25

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Dewpoint............63 decreasing to 60 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 3 mph shifting to the north around 3
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (36400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 49 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      5      2      3      8      9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............71     74     84     90     93     95
Dewpoint........63     65     65     64     62     60
RH..............77     73     53     42     36     32
20 ft wind......E 2    SE 2   E 2    NE 3   N 5    NW 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      3      5      7      8
Mix hgt (ft)....200    200    3700   5500   7300   7600
Transport wind..E 2    SE 2   NE 3   NE 5   N 6    N 5
LVORI...........4      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............1      3      15     30     49     42
Haines index....4      3      3      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      1      12     21     36     29
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...SMarlow
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416033.0/FFC
.DELDT 06/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org