585
FXUS63 KFGF 291719
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1219 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active weather pattern will continue with several chances
  of rainfall through the next 7 days with Thursday and Sunday
  into Monday being the most likely to see widespread 0.25" or
  more amounts.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Clear skies prevail across the forecast area this morning with
fog now having cleared in most areas. Temperatures are in the
middle 50s to low 60s with winds slowly increasing out of the
south to southeast.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Low lying fog this morning reported at GFK and is evident in the
up and down nature of restricted obs across the area. No OBS are
less than a half mile thus impacts are minimal and with the full
sun this morning will see it quickly burn off. Forecast remains
on track for a sunny Wednesday with some afternoon breezes of 20
to 30 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Overall good agreement with model ensembles leading to above
average confidence with the forecast wrt to overall temp and
precip pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend.
After a dry and sunny day today as upper level ridging traverses
the area attention turns to Thursday. Synoptic forcing with
upper wave in MT lifting into Manitoba and southwest 500mb flow
and associated mid level trough will spread lift east across the
FA Thursday. Reinforcing an area of showers and initiating some
thunderstorms. HREF place the highest QPF in the southern valley
not surprising with the highest, though meager, CAPE values,
100 to 300J/kg of ML CAPE. Probabilities of more than a half
inch of rainfall have decreased across the north, now less than
25% to 50 to 60% in the southern valley, with probs of an inch
or more now at or less than 10% for the entire area.

The area will remain in fairly flat or zonal flow with multiple
chance for rainfall through the weekend and into next week. We
will continue to remain on the low end of any instability until
Sunday night when we should see some deeper moisture build into
the area. This is the next chance for more wide spread areal
rainfall after the spotty and lighter amounts associated with
the chances Friday night and Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Needless to say the active pattern does look to persist into the
beginning of June with temps climbing closer to normal with more
70 degree days occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail for most areas, with only occasional MVFR
ceilings at KBJI. Look for VFR ceilings through the remainder of
the evening and into the overnight period. Southerly winds
increase this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots as
an upper low approaches the region.

During the overnight hours, LLWS becomes possible as the
boundary layer becomes inverted. Wind gusts at the surface will
diminish; however, winds aloft remain elevated and slowly
increase to around 40 knots out of the south in association with
a weakening low level jet.

For Thursday morning, precipitation chances increase gradually
from west to east, with KDVL seeing rain chances as early as
14Z. Wind gusts should pick back up at the surface, with 25 to
30 knots possible through at least the early afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Lynch