482
FXUS63 KFGF 132350
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers with isolated thunder will affect the
  region through the week and into the weekend. Impacts will be
  minimal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Showers (mostly virga) continue to drift through northwest
Minnesota this evening following a shortwave out of southern
Manitoba with dry air near the sfc killing any chances for
things to reach the ground. Removed the mention of smoke across
the area as obs have mostly cleared and AQA has been canceled.
Otherwise forecast remains on track with some thunderstorm
activity creeping across the MT/ND border. This may approach
the western forecast area as early as 2-4am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with multiple
embedded shortwaves headed for the region. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement with the general pattern evolution, although
uncertainty exists with timing and coverage of precipitation.

A low probability for frost across northwest Minnesota tonight,
but clouds from current system across southern Manitoba
combined with warm air advection should keep min temps in the
upper 30s.

...On and off Showers...

A few sprinkles across northwest Minnesota this evening as an
initial shortwave provides forcing. There is an area of rain
across southern Manitoba, but as this forcing propagates
southeast it will be moving into a drier environment and is
expected to be mostly virga as it crossed the international
border.

For the remainder of the week - best chances appear to be
tonight/Tuesday morning across the Devils Lake basin and
Tuesday night into Wednesday across the entire region. Although
coverage and timing at any one particular location is uncertain,
most locations will experience at least some rain through
Wednesday. Embedded thunder anticipated although stronger storms
are not expected.

For later in the week into the weekend, multiple scenarios
exist mainly surrounding strength and track of the upper waves
within the zonal flow aloft. This influences duration of showers
and QPF amounts - although the probability for severe weather
and excessive rainfall is very low, so other than rain
interrupting outdoor activities, impacts minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions through the period with some thunderstorm
activity moving east from the MT/ND border and reaching the DVL
area by 10z in the form of showers. Lightning is a low
probability with any showers as they reach the area. Winds
turning east with occasional gusts to 20 kts in DVL after 06z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TT