972
FXUS65 KFGZ 100933
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
233 AM MST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seaonable temperatures and dry conditions remain for
today. High pressure then begins to build over Arizona, leading
to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the
week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Dry and warm conditions are expected for today,
along with decreasing high clouds. Some lingering moisture near the
Arizona/New Mexico border may lead to a couple isolated showers near
the Chuska Mountains, while the vast majority of northern Arizona will
remain dry. Any shower that does develop will be very light and likely
not produce any measurable rainfall.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure becomes amplified over
Arizona during the middle of the week. Temperatures begin to climb
as a result, with daytime highs nearing 10 degrees above normal.
Heights maximize on Wednesday, leading to the warmest temperatures
occurring then. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for areas
below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon, Marble and Glen Canyons, and
the lower elevations of Yavapai County for Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday Night through Sunday...A cut-off low of the California
Coast ejects off the Pacific late Thursday. As this happens, high
pressure begins to loosen it`s grip over Arizona and shift into the
central United States. Increased southwesterly winds and cooler
temperatures ensue, along with increasing moisture. Thus, chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase late Thursday into Friday,
especially for areas near and north of the I-40 corridor.

Behind the low, dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures
remain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/06Z through Tuesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds becoming
S-SW 10-20 kts after 17Z. ISO SHRA east of 0V7-KRQE line.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...VFR. W-SW winds
5-15 kts with localized gusts 20-25 kts during the afternoons.
Light and variable winds expected each overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Seasonably warm and dry
today, with gradually dissipating cloud cover and light northerly
winds near the New Mexico Border. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies and
southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Warmer and dry on Tuesday, northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph over the eastern zones, then southwesterly 10 to
20 mph elsewhere.

Wednesday through Friday...Very warm and dry conditions Wednesday
and Thursday. West through southwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday
and 15 to 25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Winds gusts around 30 mph
possible Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system brings cooler
temperatures and a chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms
overnight Thursday night into Friday, especially north of the
Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff