494
FXUS63 KFSD 090302
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1002 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions prevail Sunday and Monday with seasonable
  temperatures.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms return Monday evening
  and continue through much of the week.

- Uncertain severe weather risks focused on Tuesday and again
  Wednesday.

- Temperatures rise by the middle of the week above normal. High
  probabilities (>80%) of highs above 80 degrees, with low
  probabilities (up to 40%) of highs at or above 90 degrees by
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

CURRENT THROUGH MONDAY: Outside of a few isolated showers along the
MO River Valley this morning, have seen largely dry conditions
prevail across the region. Latest observations also show
temperatures in the lower 70s, with N/NE winds gusting up to 20 MPH
in areas east of I-29. Gusts quickly diminish near sunset, with
light and variable winds then forecast to prevail overnight as
temperatures fall into the lower 50s.

Sfc high pressure slides overhead Sunday, keeping conditions dry
across the region through Monday afternoon. Highs will be a touch
warmer during this time, as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Winds should also remain relatively light, although
somewhat breezy west of I-29 Monday afternoon as the SPG tightens.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH BEYOND: Upper level trough and sfc cold front
push eastward across the Northern Plains Monday evening, causing
precipitation chances to return to the forecast. Guidance remains in
fairly decent agreement that showers/storms will develop by midnight
Monday and continue through Tuesday afternoon. Still not seeing much
in the way of shear and instability though, which should keep the
overall threat for severe weather low. Nonetheless, will continue to
monitor trends in the coming days.

Flow turns quasi-zonal in the wake of the aforementioned trough, with
multiple shortwaves progged to take aim at the region for the
remainder of the week. The first expected to occur Wednesday
afternoon/evening, followed by another round of showers/storms
Thursday afternoon. That being said, quite a bit of variability
still exists to put too much confidence behind any one solution. Do,
however, think it`s worth noting that SPC`s Latest Day 5 Outlook
does have portions of our area outlined in a 15% chance for severe
weather. In regard to temperatures, have afternoon highs gradually
rising into the mid 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday/Thursday.

Otherwise, expect upper level ridging to build across the western
CONUS by the end of the week. This should result in a brief lull in
activity across our area, with temperatures remaining at/above
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to continue into
Sunday morning. Narrow band of mid-lvl moisture will gradually
dissipate after midnight, with cirrus remaining spread through
areas south of Interstate 90 into mid-morning.

Given the fall of low temperatures into the upper 40s to lower
50s, some shallow valley and river fog may be possible, but is
not anticipated to impact many of the TAF locations.

VFR conditions continue through Sunday, with an increased risk
for diurnal CU in the afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...Dux