943
FXUS65 KGGW 012000
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A surface trough will bring possible showers and thunderstorms
from 10 PM tonight through late Sunday morning.

2) A stronger and faster moving system will transition into
northeast Montana Monday through Monday night, which will bring a
better chance for showers, thunderstorms, and wetting rain.

3) Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Following the warm and dry weather today, a shortwave and surface
trough will work together to transport an elevated moisture plume
northward into southeast portions of the CWA briefly overnight.
Although most unstable CAPE will be limited to under 1000 J/kg, there
is medium (50 percent) confidence the stronger storms will mix
down gusts to 50 mph with this amount energy to play with. The
inversion will also play a role in how well these wind gusts reach
the ground. This activity will be in North Dakota by the early
afternoon based on CAMs such as NAM NEST, HRW FV3, and HRRR.

Ensemble models like the GFS and ECMWF are aiding to predict a
stronger shortwave trough moving in on Monday. Although details
are being worked out regarding convection, there is medium to high
(50 to 60 percent) confidence of scattered showers and
thunderstorms producing at least a tenth of an inch of rain for
those who happen to be impacted directly by a storm. This activity
is expected to move into ND by Tuesday morning.

Rather breezy conditions will take hold Tuesday and Wednesday,
with high confidence of gusts exceeding 30 mph both days as high
pressure fills in behind the departing shortwave trough.
CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is low confidence regarding how well wind gusts will reach
the ground with the scattered convection that is expected to
occur tonight. The surface inversion may create enough stability
that wind gusts don`t reach the surface. There is medium
confidence of any one location seeing accumulating rainfall from
the scattered showers and storms tonight. There is high confidence
of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday.

-Stoinskers/Zanker


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR, then scattered MVFR after 06Z.

DISCUSSION: A few high clouds and dry weather is expected through
midnight before a shortwave trough and surface trough bring in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is medium to high (50
percent) confidence of showers and storms occurring between 06Z
and 18Z, with high (60 percent) confidence of MVFR ceilings
occurring near these showers and storms.

SFC WIND: Southwest at 7 to 12 knots, becoming light and variable
after 02Z, becoming northwest at 10 to 15 knots after 14Z.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow