056
FXUS65 KGGW 182018
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
218 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- An oncoming surface cold front will move in overnight, bringing
  rain showers and thunderstorm probabilities that will last
  through Sunday evening.

- Decreasing west winds will allow the Lake Wind Advisory product
  to expire this evening.

- Unsettled pattern continues with daily rain and thunderstorm
  chances for this upcoming week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The cold front will move far enough east late this afternoon to
allow breezy west winds to fall off this evening. Clouds will
increase from the west ahead of the next cold front. There is
moderate to high (40 to 60 percent) confidence of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through the area from 6 AM Sunday
through midnight Monday in response to the approaching
disturbance.

Cooler air will fill in behind the front for Monday and Tuesday,
and unsettled weather, with frequent shower and thunderstorm
chances, will continue throughout the work week. These conditions
are in response to an overall troughing pattern taking hold of
northeast Montana.


CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

There is high (90 percent) confidence of west winds dropping below
15 mph after 9 PM tonight as the cold front moves further to the
east.

There is moderate (50 percent) confidence of thunderstorms
remaining below severe weather criteria through Tuesday, and low
(20 percent) confidence on the intensity of thunderstorms that
develop beyond Tuesday. With this development, there remains
medium confidence (30-60%) of measurable precipitation occurring
on Sunday and Monday.

Based on the active weather pattern, there is high (90 percent)
confidence of below average temperatures moving in on Monday and
Tuesday.

-Bernhart/Stoinskers



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR, Isolated MVFR

DISCUSSION: High clouds will increase tonight as another shortwave
trough moves into the area late tonight. This will bring in a low
to moderate (20 to 50 percent) probability of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. MVFR conditions are possible in
and around thunderstorms and rain showers.

WINDS: West northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots,
decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after 00Z, becoming light and
variable after 04Z.

-Stoinskers


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow