Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
905 FXUS65 KGGW 222008 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 208 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cool and unsettled conditions remain into Friday, including scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds this afternoon and evening. 2) A warming trend into next week comes with decreased daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Expect occasional shortwaves helping produce enough lift and instability for daily shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly this afternoon/evening associated with a cold front. Ensemble maximum wind gust potential for thunderstorms are in the 40-50 mph range amidst otherwise light winds today. A low pressure system will maintain widespread shower chances through Thursday evening. As the upper trough gradually exits to the east this weekend, the extent of ridging early next week will determine how much warmer and drier conditions trend. CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: +++ AFTERNOON UPDATE: Blended in FV3 PoP guidance with NBM (25% FV3/75% NBM) through tonight as the FV3 was the best at identifying the start of convection across Dawson and central Valley. Otherwise, forecast remains similar ++++ Confidence remains high for temperatures and widespread coverage of rain showers at times through Thursday night, but medium on exact amounts and precise location given the challenges associated with the convective nature. Probabilities of a half inch or more of rain generally exceed 30% south of the Missouri River and the Little Rockies during this period. There have been no notable deviations from the base forecast, but precise timing of precipitation will be monitored in the short term. -Zanker/Enriquez && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2000Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR - MVFR DISCUSSION: A cold front along with daytime instability introduces low to medium (20-40%) chances for thunderstorms primarily from 21Z-02Z across the TAF sites. Impacts from this include brief gusty winds and reduction to MVFR mainly due to visibility. Otherwise, there is high (80%) confidence for lingering shower activity and increasing northeast winds tonight. -Zanker/Enriquez && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow