Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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777 FXUS63 KGID 250547 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1247 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly winds will return tomorrow and gust to 25 to 30 mph during the afternoon hours, especially along and west of Hwy 281. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening and early overnight hours. Hail and Wind are the primary hazards, but a low tornado threat is possible. - Weak, non-severe showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day Sunday. - Memorial Day looks quiet and mild. Highs in the 70s, mostly clear skies and a dry forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Tonight - Saturday night Breezy northwesterly winds are present today behind last nights cold front and associated severe weather. It has been sunny and dry throughout the day and it is expected to remain dry this evening and overnight. Overnight, surface high pressure will move overhead and winds will become southerly. A deepening lee low will cause the pressure gradient to increase and breezy southerly winds are expected Saturday. Southerly wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph are expected. As moisture streams back to the north with the southerly winds, cloud cover will increase from the sunrise through the early afternoon. There could be some clearing during the afternoon hours. There is some variability among the guidance at how dense the cloud cover will be and how long it will stick around which could impact the potential for severe weather later in the day. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front/dryline across Nebraska/Kansas in the afternoon hours as the upper disturbance approaches from the west. A limiting factor for activity in Nebraska is that the best moisture will reside along and south of the NE/KS state line. Activity that does develop along and ahead of the front/dryline would likely be more isolated as it develops before evolving into a linear system as the cold pool strengthens. All hazards are possible, but the primary concern will be hail and wind. Areas to the south and east of our area will have the best chance for more widespread severe hazards as a the linear system develops, moves into the evening and overnight hours and interacts with an increasing low level jet. The Day 2 update kept the Slight Risk and Marginal Risk largely the same, but increased the Enhanced Risk area pushing it a bit further into our forecast area in north central Kansas, but has kept the addition of a Moderate Risk to the southeast of our area. Timing for south central Nebraska and north central Kansas looks as if it will be to be near to after 6-7 PM Saturday evening for entering our area. Sunday: A number of pieces of energy will move across the area on Sunday and that will bring cloudy skies, breezy northwesterly winds and scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms to the area. Highs will be in the low 70s and with the breezy northwesterly winds it will feel cool. Monday (Memorial Day): Memorial Day will be a nice reprieve after number of days with rain and thunderstorms. Dry weather with mostly sunny skies and temps topping out in the upper 70s is expected. Enjoy! Tuesday through Friday: The pattern shifts to a northwesterly flow aloft with chances for scattered thunderstorms. By the end of the work week, a trough digs into the intermountain west and southwesterly flow aloft returns continuing the sporadic off and on rain chances. Highs in the 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR forecast through the period. Clear skies currently will give way to incr high clds through the morning. SCT to BKN high clouds expected much of the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible around and esp. after sunset as a cold front moves in from the NW. Have introduced VCSH around 03Z-04Z for now as coverage and exact timing is still uncertain. Lgt Srly flow now will give way to breezy conditions after sunrise. Sustained winds will incr to 15-20kt, with gusts up to around 30kt. Winds will back to the SE and E Sat eve ahead of the cold front. Confidence: Medium. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...Thies