327
FXUS63 KGID 260624
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
124 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop Sunday
  afternoon. A few of these may also be strong to severe with
  large hail as the primary threat, but most storms Sunday are
  not expected to reach severe criteria.

- After a dry Monday, shower and thunderstorm chances return
  Tuesday evening and continue through the end of the work week.

- High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s with lows in
  the upper 40s and 50s through the forecast period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Both convective watches were allowed to expire at 1AM CDT. A few
non-severe thunderstorms with small hail and heavy downpours
will continue along and south of the state line and E of Hwy 281
for another couple of hours. Went ahead and issued another Flood
Advisory for portions of Franklin and Webster Counties due to
narrow band of radar estimated 2-4 inches of rain. Haven`t heard
any ground truth of flooding, but with it being a holiday
weekend and overnight, wanted at least something out there to
cover this potential. Fortunately, appreciable rainfall looks to
be done for this area, and the heaviest rain ongoing in northern
KS is currently falling just N of the Flood Advisory down there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This evening/tonight:
The main focus of this forecast is the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening, which are expected to persist into
the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west and south of the forecast area around 6PM this
evening and then move across the forecast area this evening and
overnight. As this does, increased low-level moisture will move
north into the region, increasing the chance for severe storms.
Models generally agree with the timing of storms moving across
the area, but there has been a slight downtrend with some of the
CAMs on how widespread they are, perhaps tapping into the
persistent mid- to high level cloud cover or perhaps indicating
that moisture will not flow as far north due to the stronger
storms over Kansas and Oklahoma. That being said, if robust
storms do develop, large hail up to golf ball size and damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 MPH will be possible with any clusters or
line of storm. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with discrete
supercells in the Enhanced risk area this evening OR from QLCS
spinups. Current thinking is that severe storms will be possible
from approximately 7PM this evening to 2AM Sunday morning, with
higher likelihood late in the evening/overnight as instability
and better moisture reaches the area.

With this being Memorial Day weekend, there will be a lot of
outdoor activities, so have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings/updates and have a plan of action and a safe place to
go if thunderstorms develop nearby or move into the area. These
storms will move across the area quickly so ensure you have
enough time to get to that safe place quickly if necessary.

Rest of the Holiday Weekend:
There will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms all day
Sunday, first with some lingering moisture Sunday morning then a
potential redevelopment of storms Sunday afternoon. Cannot rule
out an isolated storm with marginally severe hail Sunday
afternoon/evening, but most storms are not expected to be
severe. Sunday is not expected to be a washout, but isolated to
scattered PM storms will need to be watched. Fortunately,
Memorial Day itself is expected to be dry.

Tuesday through Friday:
Dry conditions continue through the daytime Tuesday with mild
temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elevated showers/storms may
develop Tuesday evening/night, and this looks to be the start of
another active period. A series of near-surface disturbances
will move across throughout the week bringing a chance of
showers and storms Wednesday, with better chances Thursday and
possibly Friday as an upper level trough moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

MVFR VSBYs and/or CIGs possible this morning.

Convection has shifted well E/SE of both terminals early this
morning, and dry conditions and at least a brief period of
clearing is forecast. This clearing could actually help support
some stratus and/or fog as winds remain fairly light over wet
ground from recent rainfall. No real signs of this forming just
yet elsewhere in the region, and model guidance is mixed, so
confidence on this actually panning out is fairly low. As an
inverted sfc trough passes next few hours, winds will shift from
Erly to N/NWrly by sunrise.

NWrly flow 5-15kt expected for the daytime Sunday, along with at
least SCT CU and iso showers/storms for the aftn. Models have
varied substantially with coverage and location of activity
today, so didn`t go anything more than VCSH for now. Hvy
downpours and brief reductions in flt cat is possible with the
heaviest cells. Otherwise, would expect a CU field to develop by
midday around 2-3K ft, then rise to 3-5K ft by late aftn. This
activity will be diurnaly driven and weaken around sunset, along
with the NW winds. Confidence: Low to medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Thies