895
FXUS63 KGID 050531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As of this update at 657 PM, any further chance of storms
  this evening is mainly confined to our extreme southeastern
  coverage area (CWA)...mainly Jewell/Osborne/Mitchell counties.
  Although cannot totally rule out a rogue strong to severe
  storm over the next 60-90 minutes, even this far southeast
  area should be storm-free by no later than 8-830 PM.

- Wednesday and Thursday bring dry conditions and warmer
  temperatures to the area. This is especially true of
  Wednesday, with highs forecast in the upper 80s to low
  90s...accompanied by gusty westerly winds.

- Periodic, generally low (20-30 percent) chances for
  showers/storms return to the area Friday on into early next
  week. Overall confidence in any finer details like
  timing/location is pretty low at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently through tonight...

Upper air and satellite data showing a shortwave trough axis
making its way through the Plains this afternoon, extending
southward from low pressure over central Canada. Elsewhere
across the CONUS, another shortwave disturbance is in the
IA/MO/IL border area, while broad ridging extends northward
closer to both coasts. At the surface, this upper level trough
is shoving a cold front south through the area, at 3PM was
roughly located halfway through the forecast area. Ahead of this
boundary, thanks in part to showers/storms that passed through
earlier in the day, winds have been on the light/variable
side...behind the front, it`s gusty northerly winds.
Precipitation that started early this morning gradually slid
from west to east through the day, driven more by warmer air
advection aloft...with the strongest activity moving across KS.
This afternoon, had a few isolated storms develop along the
surface front over portions of Dawson/Gosper Counties...but
those have since dissipated. Isolated to scattered activity will
still be possible the rest of this afternoon along that surface
boundary...but what passed through this morning/early afternoon
didn`t do any favors in producing a favorable environment.
Thought at least modest amounts of instability around, deeper
layer shear and low-mid level lapse rates are on the lower side.
Kept chances on the lower side (20-30 percent) due to activity
not expected to be widespread. Once this surface boundary pushes
southeast of the forecast area, the preciptiation chances go
along, and have a dry forecast by mid-evening, lasting through
the overnight hours.

Mid-week...

Overall, little change to the forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday, which remains dry. Models are in good agreement
showing the forecast area being under northwesterly flow aloft,
as the system from today digs further south as it treks east,
and the ridging over the western CONUS shifts east more into the
Rockies. Not looking to be much in the way of notable
disturbances sliding through the forecast at this time. At the
surface, high pressure builds into the area tonight, bringing
more light/variable winds...turning more westerly and picking up
in speed during the day on Wednesday. The area will be sitting
between that surface sliding further south and another frontal
boundary making its way toward us through the Dakotas...the
tightening pressure gradient and increased mixing potential
bringing the possibility of westerly winds gusting 25-30 MPH for
much of the afternoon hours. This along with warmer lower level
air mass to tap into and plenty of sun expected...kept highs on
the warmer side of things (warmer than most 12Z
models/guidance), with the forecast having upper 80s-low 90s for
most of the forecast area. That being said, if the timing of
this front (which does have `cooler` air with it) speeds up,
that could throw a wrench in the high temp forecast.

Winds eventually turn more northerly with the passage of that
surface front Wednesday evening/night, but diminish in speed as
higher pressure builds in. That surface high is expected to
slide SE through the area during the day on Thursday, keeping
winds overall on the lighter side. Expecting another day with
plenty of sun, an overall pretty nice day with cooler high temps
in the low 80s and dewpoints currently forecast in the 40s.

Friday on through the weekend...

Spotty rain/storm chances return to the forecast Friday on
through the weekend into early next week...but overall
confidence in any timing/location details is pretty low,
especially the further out in time you go. In general, models
showing the upper level riding over the Rockies/western CONUS
getting broken down by disturbances moving through, turning flow
over the Central Plains a bit more westerly/zonal (to varying
degrees depending on the model). Will have increasing potential
for periodic shortwave disturbances to slide through the
region...and because of lingering model uncertainties with
timing/location, NBM chances are low, mainly in the 20-30
percent range.

As far as temperatures go, expecting highs in the 80s to stick
around into Friday, with the forecast a touch cooler into the
mid 70s to low 80s for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High confidence (95%+) in VFR conditions at GRI/EAR through the
next 24 hours as skies remain mostly clear.

Winds torn from the southwest to the northwest through the day
on Wednesday. Afternoon gusts in the 20-25kt range will be
common.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels