123
FXUS62 KGSP 120158
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
958 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through the week under weak high
pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the
north.  The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday,
then the heat should continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday: More low and mid clouds developing than
expected, as moisture is trapped under a fairly pronounced inversion
on the 00z GSO sounding. In general, the guidance has the clouds
thinning out/dissipating, but they are not initializing the current
cloud cover over the CWFA very well. Have bumped up sky thru the
evening with the latest CONSshort, but then have it gradually
decrease thru the night. Temps may end up being slightly warmer
than expected, if skies don`t completely clear out.

Otherwise, an upper trough situated north of the CWA shifts eastward
as a weakening ridge axis moves toward the Midwest. Thus, the
subtropical jet continues to settle northward, setting the stage
for a typical summerlike pattern. Flow aloft starts to become
more broad and W/NW by the end of the period. Sfc high pressure
continues to build into the southeast and increased height rises
contribute to a warming pattern into the extended period. As the sfc
pressure amplifies eastward, sfc winds will toggle E/SE with a short
lived moisture fetch from the Atlantic Ocean, at least through the
near term. No precipitation is expected during this time, given
the strong subsidence and stout inversion layer aloft shunting
rising parcels from the BL. Quiet forecast overall. Temperatures
overnight will be closer to climo and highs on Wednesday start to
rebound with temps in the upper 80s east of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will slowly rise through the
short range period. A seasonally dry air mass will remain in place
across the area keeping skies mostly sunny/clear and limiting any
convection to isolated ridgetop showers during peak heating. Thus,
we expect high temperatures to get higher each day. Expect highs in
the Piedmont to be near 90 on Thursday and in the lower to middle
90s on Friday. Mountain valley highs will be in the mid 80s Thursday
and near 90 on Friday. Friday`s readings will be nearly 10 degrees
above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will continue to rise
through the weekend into early next week. However, surface high
pressure will push into the northeastern states bringing an easterly
component to the low level flow in this area. This will act to bring
some moisture back into the area and cool temperatures down some.
Readings will likely still be above climo, especially this weekend
but not as hot as Friday. With the moisture returning, we will see a
return to more typical mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Sunday into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru the period,
but patchy mountain valley fog may form (not expected to affect
KAVL). High pressure will keep winds light thru the period,
picking up slightly out of the S/SE around midday, but staying
around 4-6 kt. Periods of mainly few-sct fair wx cu will persist
under increasing cirrus during the day Wednesday.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure remains over the area thru the end of
the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/CP
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...ARK