170
FXUS62 KGSP 052323
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Thursday.
Dry Canadian air will mix across the area Friday and persist into
the weekend. A chance of thunderstorms returns to the region Sunday
and continues into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 PM EDT Wednesday: For the evening update, the environment
is becoming less supportive of convection as the air gets worked
over from passing showers. Already seeing a downward trend in
showers and thunderstorm activity on radar and satellite. Therefore,
reduced PoPs for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight
hours. Still cannot rule out a few showers, but confidence in severe
potential is becoming even lower.

At any rate, convection will subside after sundown as whatever
instability we end up with vanishes, and the shortwave translates
east, taking synoptic support with it.  The overnight hours will
feature mostly dry conditions (although yet again, recent HRRR and
RAP runs are hinting at a wave of isolated morning showers for the
Upstate around daybreak) and the development of another deck of low
stratus and patchy fog incited by a still-moist boundary layer.
Guidance depicts this scattering out more quickly than it did
today, as stronger WAA picks up ahead of an advancing cold front.
The leading edge of this circulation should arrive by evening,
and ahead of it, another round of afternoon convection is depicted
by virtually all the guidance.  Severe risk still looks hampered by
weak shear...but 0-6km shear, particularly over the NC Piedmont out
to the I-77 corridor, approach 20kts, enough that some strong to
severe storms cannot be completely ruled out.  And, with the front
slowed in the latest 12z cycle of operational guidance, it arrives
late enough for 1700-2300 J/kg sbCAPE to develop.  Therefore, an
isolated damaging wind risk can`t be ruled out with any segments
that manage to get organized Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...An amplified system over the Great Lakes
states will push a cold front through the area by Thursday evening.
This will lead to drier and thus more comfortable conditions for
Friday and Saturday. With surface high pressure in place, lows
Friday night will drop into the 55-60 range in the Piedmont and to
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains. Highs both Friday and
Saturday will be near climo, but with low relative humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Wednesday...The mid level system over the Great Lakes
will further amplify creating a little more active northwest flow
pattern on Sunday and Monday. This will lead to the return of pops
for these days and nights, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to
where and when any storms might occur. Drier conditions will return
for the middle of next week as the system pushes through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Another TAF period with restrictions and more
complicated weather. Starting out with scattered showers and TS, but
tapering off quickly. This will leave a period of VFR CIGS/VSBY
through most of the overnight hours. Low level stratus will start to
develop once again, socking in most terminals outside the mountains
to IFR conditions. Time frame for IFR restrictions will be between
08-10z, with KCLT lowering around the 10z timeframe. Expect
improvements around the 13z-14z time range, with MVFR returning. VFR
conditions should return after 15z at most terminals. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon for most
sites. A PROB30 for TSRA for now and will adjust to TEMPOs as needed
for those terminals with higher confidence in future issuances.
Winds will remain S/SW at all sites with wind gusts picking up after
12z. Expect low-end gusts 15-20kts through the end of the TAF period
and 23z at KCLT.

Outlook: Drier air moves into the area by Friday morning with
improving restrictions into the weekend. High pressure will linger
through Saturday before another system approaches by the start of
the new work week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/MPR
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CP