364
FXPQ50 PGUM 050848
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
648 PM ChST Wed Jun 5 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite observations show partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies
across the Marianas with a general clearing trend through the
afternoon observed. A few isolated showers linger across the region.
Combined seas are generally between 4 and 6 feet, mainly composed of
trade-wind swell and wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that impacted the
Marianas earlier today have mostly dissipated. The main concern will
be the mid to upper level circulation that is approaching the
Marianas from the east. Satellite imagery shows a few squalls near
and to the south of the circulation. Isolated showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible tonight as the circulation nears the
Marianas. A lull is expected beginning Thursday and into the weekend
with isolated showers possible across the region. An uptick in
precipitation will be possible early next week as the Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) pivots over the region.


&&

.Marine...
Combined seas range between 4 and 6 feet and could increase into the
5 to 7 foot range by Thursday night. On Friday seas will begin to
diminish again with seas dropping to the 3 to 5 feet range by
Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight before a lull is
expected this weekend. Thunderstorms look to return to the region
early next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) fragment has been
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between
Kosrae and Pohnpei during the day. Latest model guidance shows the
(ITCZ) building back south of Majuro on Thursday, then to south of
Kosrae around Saturday and generating periods of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms through most of the weekend. Models then
show the ITCZ fragmenting and eventually dissolving early next week
before rebuilding again around the middle of next week.

Benign sea conditions and light and gentle trades are expected to
continue through at least early next week at Pohnpei and Kosrae. For
Majuro, gentle to moderate trades are expected through Friday,
becoming light to gentle this weekend into early next week with
benign seas conditions. Altimetry passes this afternoon show combined
seas between 5 and 7 feet east of Majuro and between 4 and 6 feet at
Kosrae and Pohnpei.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) Cell north of Yap State
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Yap and
Palau today. Model guidance shows the TUTT cell will continue to
move west-southwest and away from Palau late Thursday into early
Friday morning allowing shower and thunderstorm activity to decrease.
A trade-wind trough over Chuuk and upper level support from a TUTT
cell east of the Marianas that is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorm north of Weno will push west of the State
Thursday night. A trade-wind pattern pattern will develop with weak
troughs generating periods of isolated showers through early next week.

Benign sea conditions and light and gentle trades are expected to
continue for Chuuk, Yap, and Palau through early next week. Altimetry
passes this afternoon show combined seas mostly 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Williams
Micronesia: Kelly