Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
871 FXPQ50 PGUM 040835 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 635 PM ChST Tue Jun 4 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the region, latest satellite shows a trade wind trough approaching from the southeast to bring scattered showers tonight. && .Discussion... A trough embedded in a drier trade wind pattern is seen southeast of the Marianas. A bit more unstable weather pattern is expected tonight, also with TUTT pattern which extends across the region, so added a slight chance of thunderstorms. The forecast for Wednesday remains the same with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. && .Marine... Ritidian buoy reported 3 feet and altimetry indicated 2 to 4 feet east of the Marianas. A slight increase in easterly wind wave and swell is expected through late this week but combined seas are not expected to exceed 5 feet. Expect surf to rise about a foot or two as well for east reefs, and rip current risk is forecasted to increase to moderate Wednesday. && .Eastern Micronesia... A fragmented Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of Kosrae and Pohnpei and over Majuro. Latest model guidance continues to show a wet pattern will continue to persist as the ITCZ rebuilds to south of Majuro around Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm activity could become more isolated in nature as trade convergence over the area weakens this weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate trades are expected through at least Thursday at Majuro and Pohnpei before becoming light to gentle and persisting through the weekend. For Kosrae, gentle to moderate trades will become light to gentle around Wednesday night and persist through the weekend. Altimetry passes this afternoon show combined seas between 4 and 6 feet at Kosrae and Pohnpei and 5 to 7 east of the Marshalls. && .Western Micronesia... A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell north of Yap is generating isolated thunderstorms west of Yap and Palau. The TUTT cell is expected to move west-southwest and continue to weaken through Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through at least tomorrow for Yap and Palau. Models then show a trade-wind trough moving over Yap and Palau sometime Thursday into Friday with convergence along and ahead of the trough generating isolated showers. For the weekend into early next week, multiple weak trade-wind troughs will generate isolated shower chances at Yap and Palau. For Chuuk, a trade-wind trough has broken off from the ITCZ in eastern Micronesia and will push over Chuuk State tonight through at least Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected due to convergence along and behind the trough. Model solutions for the latter part of the week into early next week show trade convergence and weak troughs will generate mainly scattered showers, and at times isolated showers, and isolated thunderstorms through early next week. Light to gentle winds and benign seas are expected at Yap and Palau through the weekend. For Chuuk, gentle to moderate trades are expected through at least Wednesday then becoming light to gentle for the latter part of this week into the weekend. Altimetry passes this afternoon show combined seas between 3 and 4 feet. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Hong Micronesia: Kelly