846
FXPQ50 PGUM 082000
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
600 AM ChST Sun Jun 9 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle trades prevail in the region. Satellite imagery indicates some
shallow clouds lingering over the coastal waters. Ritidian buoy
indicates seas are 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Overnight satellite imagery and model guidance indicate that both
surface trade troughs and the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) cell to our northeast have slowed in their forward motion
towards the Marianas, so shower coverage was dropped through tonight.
On-and-off showers are still expected to return next week across the
region, as winds become more moderate as well.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to drop a foot by the middle
of the week, before increasing once again towards next weekend.
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along east facing reefs
for the next few days, and a low risk is expected along all other
reefs for the rest of the week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The main weather feature affecting Eastern Micronesia is a trade-wind
trough currently north of Kosrae and east of Pohnpei.

Majuro should therefore get a chance to dry out through tonight,
then shower activity could pick up again starting Monday. Gentle to
moderate trades and 3 to 5 foot swells will complete the picture by
providing benign marine conditions this week.

Kosrae should get a similar chance to dry out. Because they`re a
little farther west, it should last through Monday night, then shower
activity could pick up a bit starting on Tuesday. Gentle to moderate
trades and 3 to 5 foot swells will similarly provide benign marine
conditions at Kosrae.

The trade-wind trough will affect Pohnpei today and tonight,
providing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Pohnpei will
then have a chance to dry out Monday through Tuesday, then the
showers will pick up again a little for Wednesday and Thursday.
Swells will be 3 to 5 feet. Trade winds will start light to gentle,
becoming gentle to moderate on Tuesday. This will also mean benign
marine conditions for Pohnpei.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Two trade-wind troughs are affecting Western Micronesia, the first is
just east of Chuuk and the second just west of Yap.

The trough will provide Chuuk with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms today, which will last through Monday. Chuuk should
then have a chance to dry out Monday night through Wednesday, then
showers could increase Thursday. Light to moderate winds and swells
of 3 to 4 feet will also promote benign marine conditions at Chuuk.

The trough near Yap is producing a small area of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms which will affect Yap today. Yap can then
dry out a bit tonight through Monday night, then a higher chance of
rain again Tuesday through Thursday. Light to gentle winds and
combined seas of 2 to 4 feet will again give benign marine conditions
for Yap.

Koror Palau should have a chance to dry out through Monday night,
then showers could increase a bit Tuesday through Thursday. 2 to 3
foot swells and light to gentle winds also will create benign marine
conditions here.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
Micronesia: Stanko