149
FXUS61 KGYX 082359
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
759 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Any isolated lingering showers end before midnight. Thereafter
low pressure is expected to bring rain to the region Sunday,
especially in the morning and early afternoon. A few afternoon
showers are again likely on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front
looks to move through either late Thursday or Friday with
another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
755 PM...Timing and reduction of POPs thru the evening were the
main focus of this updates. For the most a few scattered showers
remain over the N and E zones, but these are isolated, and the
overall trend should be downward over the next couple hours.
They`re still convective, so a brief downpour is not out of the
question, but don`t expect any lightning. It`ll clear out or
stay clear outside the mtns through the middle of the night,
before clouds in advance of the next system start moving in
during the pre-dawn hours, with some showers breaking out around
day break in NH and around or shortly after sunrise in W ME.

Numerous convective showers and scattered thunderstorms this
Saturday afternoon will wane early this evening as we lose
daytime heating. However, until then heavy showers and a few
thunderstorms will produce downpours and small hail.

Skies will at least partially clear tonight before clouds
increase late. Thinking the fog threat will be less as the
boundary layer should be drier and better mixed.

Low pressure developing near NYC late tonight will begin to
spread rain over southern NH late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Yet another trough will cross the region on Sunday. This one
will move just to our south aiding in the formation of SFC low
pressure to our south that will move eastward through the
morning hours into the afternoon. A steady rain will be the
likely result, especially for the southern half of NH and
southernmost ME during the morning and early afternoon. Up to a
half inch of rain is expected. Northern areas will likely see
more convective showers in the afternoon. Lowered high temps due
to the expected rainfall.

Clearing skies will areas of fog Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Unsettled conditions continue through Monday while
upper low pulls north of the region. Broad high pressure
advances east mid-week, with drier conditions forecast. Another
low pressure system may bring additional damp weather for late
week.

Details: Center of low pressure will be pulling just north of
the Maine/New Brunswick border during the day Monday. Due to the
broad nature of it, much of the area will still be cloudy with
some scattered showers. These may wait until mid to late
afternoon to fire as daytime heating should provide the fuel
here. Current guidance has very weak instability through the
afternoon, so cut back on some PoPs that were advertised on the
NBM. The flow offshore is SW, while land flow is more WNW, so
there may be more in the way of convergence towards the coast
late in the day to get some showers started. These ultimately
subside shortly after sunset.

High pressure slides east into Tuesday with mostly dry
conditions forecast. There will be another chance of some
diurnal showers in the afternoon, but moisture is limited. Some
of these may be focused across the mountains where there is
another forcing agent in terrain.

Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday in the way of afternoon
showers. This time comes with more southerly flow to aid in
moisture transport. The higher rain chances this week come
Thursday into the first half of the weekend. Low pressure skirts
north of the Great Lakes potentially bringing a warm sector and
cold front through the CWA. This combination of moisture and
lift will bring chance of some thunderstorms, but it is too
early for specifics on intensity/coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Any MVFR conditions will improve to VFR tonight as
a drier westerly flow enters the region. There should be less
fog tonight as in previous nights with a drier airmass and
better mixing in place. However, MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected to enter the region Sunday morning as rain moves across
the region. Improvement is foreseen Sunday afternoon and night.

Long Term...Ceiling restrictions are possible across far western
ME and northern NH Monday and overnight. There may be some fog
over the coastal waters that nears coastal terminal like PWM or
RKD Tues/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not
expected tonight. However, a few gusts around 25 kt are
possible Sunday as low pressure passes just to the east.

Long Term...Below SCA criteria. Upper low pressure finally pulls
north early this week, with high pressure approaching after.
Surface low pressure passes to the south of the waters midweek.
Additional frontal systems may move across the waters towards
late week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...
MARINE...