Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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552 FXUS61 KGYX 090245 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1045 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Any isolated lingering showers end before midnight. Thereafter low pressure is expected to bring rain to the region Sunday, especially in the morning and early afternoon. A few afternoon showers are again likely on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front looks to move through either late Thursday or Friday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM...Just a quick tune up to the grids based on current obs, but forecast doesn;t change very much with any showers through much of the night limited to areas near the intl border. Otherwise seeing high clouds moving in from the W from the approaching next system, but any radar returns associated with this are not reaching the ground. 755 PM...Timing and reduction of POPs thru the evening were the main focus of this updates. For the most a few scattered showers remain over the N and E zones, but these are isolated, and the overall trend should be downward over the next couple hours. They`re still convective, so a brief downpour is not out of the question, but don`t expect any lightning. It`ll clear out or stay clear outside the mtns through the middle of the night, before clouds in advance of the next system start moving in during the pre-dawn hours, with some showers breaking out around day break in NH and around or shortly after sunrise in W ME. Numerous convective showers and scattered thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon will wane early this evening as we lose daytime heating. However, until then heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will produce downpours and small hail. Skies will at least partially clear tonight before clouds increase late. Thinking the fog threat will be less as the boundary layer should be drier and better mixed. Low pressure developing near NYC late tonight will begin to spread rain over southern NH late. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Yet another trough will cross the region on Sunday. This one will move just to our south aiding in the formation of SFC low pressure to our south that will move eastward through the morning hours into the afternoon. A steady rain will be the likely result, especially for the southern half of NH and southernmost ME during the morning and early afternoon. Up to a half inch of rain is expected. Northern areas will likely see more convective showers in the afternoon. Lowered high temps due to the expected rainfall. Clearing skies will areas of fog Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Unsettled conditions continue through Monday while upper low pulls north of the region. Broad high pressure advances east mid-week, with drier conditions forecast. Another low pressure system may bring additional damp weather for late week. Details: Center of low pressure will be pulling just north of the Maine/New Brunswick border during the day Monday. Due to the broad nature of it, much of the area will still be cloudy with some scattered showers. These may wait until mid to late afternoon to fire as daytime heating should provide the fuel here. Current guidance has very weak instability through the afternoon, so cut back on some PoPs that were advertised on the NBM. The flow offshore is SW, while land flow is more WNW, so there may be more in the way of convergence towards the coast late in the day to get some showers started. These ultimately subside shortly after sunset. High pressure slides east into Tuesday with mostly dry conditions forecast. There will be another chance of some diurnal showers in the afternoon, but moisture is limited. Some of these may be focused across the mountains where there is another forcing agent in terrain. Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday in the way of afternoon showers. This time comes with more southerly flow to aid in moisture transport. The higher rain chances this week come Thursday into the first half of the weekend. Low pressure skirts north of the Great Lakes potentially bringing a warm sector and cold front through the CWA. This combination of moisture and lift will bring chance of some thunderstorms, but it is too early for specifics on intensity/coverage. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Any MVFR conditions will improve to VFR tonight as a drier westerly flow enters the region. There should be less fog tonight as in previous nights with a drier airmass and better mixing in place. However, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to enter the region Sunday morning as rain moves across the region. Improvement is foreseen Sunday afternoon and night. Long Term...Ceiling restrictions are possible across far western ME and northern NH Monday and overnight. There may be some fog over the coastal waters that nears coastal terminal like PWM or RKD Tues/Wed. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not expected tonight. However, a few gusts around 25 kt are possible Sunday as low pressure passes just to the east. Long Term...Below SCA criteria. Upper low pressure finally pulls north early this week, with high pressure approaching after. Surface low pressure passes to the south of the waters midweek. Additional frontal systems may move across the waters towards late week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION... MARINE...