Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
146 FXHW60 PHFO 100643 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 843 PM HST Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds will continue this week with high pressure slowly tracking eastward. Scant trade showers will favor windward shores and slopes. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure to our north continues to rebound as troughing farther to the north lifts out. The pressure gradient remains steep enough to support breezy trade winds across local waters this evening. Ridging aloft keeps our airmass dry and stable, with afternoon soundings showing strong inversions near 5000 feet. Satellite loop shows patchy broken to overcast low clouds across windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with broken to overcast low clouds across most lower Big Island slopes. Radar shows only isolated light showers associated with this cloud cover. Models show high pressure to our north will track eastward through the week, with a low shifting the high a bit southward by next weekend. Our weather pattern will change very little through the period, with minor fluctuations in wind speeds and mostly dry and stable conditions continuing. A few windward clouds and showers will occur at times, but no significant rainfall is expected through the week. && .AVIATION... Breezy trades will increase slightly through tomorrow. With high pressure and dry air in place over the region, SHRA activity will be limited. A strong inversion will keep any ceilings fairly low, allowing for periods of MVFR conds. Otherwise, VFR should prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb S and W of island terrain. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the week, as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades. Surf along south-facing shores has quickly picked up this afternoon/early evening, due to a fresh, long-period south- southwest swell filling in. Expect this upward trend to persist overnight into Monday based on the early evening buoy observations, which supports the advisory holding through the day Monday as the swell peaks. A downward trend is anticipated Tuesday through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south- southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A similar long-period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday. Surf along north-facing shores will remain up slightly through the first half of the week as small north to north-northwest pulses move through. The next north pulse should fill in late Monday, with a small north-northwest swell arriving Tuesday into midweek. A return to summertime/flat conditions is likely later this week through next weekend. Surf along east-facing shores should trend up later this week as the trades become established locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai West- Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Powell AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Gibbs