Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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003 FXUS62 KILM 012342 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 742 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this coming week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday. A cold front could reach the Carolinas by Friday. && .UPDATE... Thick cirrus observed on satellite off to the west exists between a ridge axis near the Carolina coast and a shortwave near the AL/GA border. The ridge is on its way out but will linger close enough to the coast to help dissipate these clouds as they attempt to move east overnight. I`ve nudged a few forecast low temperatures down a degree a degree or so just inland from the beaches, but otherwise the forecast remains in good shape. Changes with this update centered mainly on near-term sky cover and dewpoints, both of which were too high versus observations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highly amplified ridge axis now over the area while weak high pressure resides at the surface. The ridge will remain progressive in nature through Sunday pushed off or weakened by weak shortwaves from the west. The overall forecast remains consistent as the airmass modifies from both a temperature and dewpoint standpoint along with increasing intervals of mid level clouds. Some guidance wants to develop a few showers late Sunday afternoon mainly western areas but this seems a stretch at this point. Temperatures will tack on about five degrees or so from todays values. Lows in the lower 60s with highs in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Return flow in full swing around offshore high pressure for the start of the week. This will warm temps to seasonable for the short term, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs Monday in the mid to upper 80s. A weak mid-upper ridge in place Monday, but there will still be enough moisture and forcing with the sea breeze to produce widely scattered afternoon storms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with continued WAA and slowly increasing dewpoints. Despite lingering weak ridge aloft Tuesday into early Wednesday, still expecting diurnal convection along sea breeze and Piedmont trough both days. Warmth and moisture peak on Thursday providing plenty of instability, with some upper level support combining with local boundaries to produce scattered storms. Current forecast has heat indices Thursday approaching triple digits. A front is forecasted to move across sometime Friday, associated with a stacked low over the northern Great Lakes, with a drying trend possible heading into next weekend behind the front. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected. There is a low risk for MVFR visibility in shallow ground fog at KCRE and KILM late tonight, mainly between 09-12z. There is also a low potential for afternoon convective showers Sunday after 18z affecting the KFLO and KLBT airports. Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday, becoming a little more widespread Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Quiet as can be across the waters through Sunday. The weak return/southeast flow of 10-12 knots at best will continue essentially unimpeded. Significant seas will represent the winds well hovering around 2 feet. Sunday Night through Thursday...Southerly flow at 5-10 kts, with afternoon gusts around 15 kts, continues around offshore high pressure Sunday night through Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet from SE swell and S wind chop. South-southwest winds pick up on Thursday as a front approaches, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 kts. Seas in turn build to 3-4 ft late Thursday as the southerly component increases. Chances for late night/early morning storms over the waters increase through mid week, with thunderstorm chances all day Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records date back to 1874. Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of 66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that really helped break the record. In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7 degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there. Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively. Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal climate summaries (CLS) text products issued earlier this afternoon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...TRA MARINE...SHK/VAO CLIMATE...TRA