752
FXUS62 KILM 190007
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
807 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will push off the coast tonight, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms continuing into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm by
mid-week, and no precipitation is expected. A weakening cold front
will approach the region Thursday night, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Main update was to increase PoPs during the first half of the
night across the northern half of the area as hourly hi-res
guidance consistently depicts training convection along the
southward-sagging cold front developing into the northern half
of the area later this evening into the overnight. Otherwise,
no major adjustments were needed. See updated 00Z aviation
discussion below.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere will interact with a
frontal boundary and warm, moist air over the area to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. The front will drop south through the area late tonight
into Sunday, reducing but not eliminating chances for rain for
Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s with highs Sunday in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will shift off the coast, and scattered showers
are possible along the coastal counties through midnight. Cool,
dry, high pressure will build over the area on Monday. Monday`s
high temperatures will be in the upper to lower 70s. Lows on
Sunday night will be in the upper 50s, and on Monday night, they
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the regions Tuesday through Thursday.
A cold front will move into the Carolinas on Thursday and to
the eastern half of the Carolinas on Friday. This front will
dissipate over the area on Saturday. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin Thursday afternoon, mainly west of
Interstate 95, before chances increase across the entire region
on Friday and Saturday.

As the week progresses, we can anticipate a gradual increase in
temperatures. On Tuesday, highs are expected to reach the lower
80s inland and the upper 70s along the beaches. This warming
trend will continue from Wednesday to Saturday, with highs
climbing to the mid- to upper 80s inland and the lower 80s at
the beaches. Low temperatures will slowly rise from the lower
60s Tuesday night to 67 to 70 degrees along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening are expected to deteriorate from
north to south as a cold front sags into the area, bringing IFR
to potentially LIFR cigs to all terminals overnight. The
northern terminals (ILM and LBT) are also expected to see
transient MVFR to IFR vis restrictions in passing
showers/storms as convection over central NC drifts southward,
with LIFR possible in the heaviest rain. This convection is
expected to weaken and gradually dissipate as nocturnal cooling
decreases instability, so the further south terminals (FLO, CRE,
MYR) should only see passing showers if the precipitation band makes
it. Otherwise, expect IFR to LIFR cigs to persist into tomorrow
morning with a very gradual lifting of cigs into the MVFR range
expected through the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Cig restrictions may continue through Sunday
night before VFR takes over during the day on Monday. VFR should
otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions
possible each day through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Southwest winds to 10 KT or less will become
west late tonight and N to NE at 10 to 15 KT Sunday. Seas of 2
to 3 FT tonight will continue into Sunday.

Sunday Night Through Friday:
A cold front will shift east of the waters on Sunday night, and
high pressure will build over the waters through Thursday. On
Friday, a cold front will approach eastern North Carolina.

Winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots Sunday night
into Monday before the pressure gradient weakens by Monday
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Monday, with
the best chances in the waters south of Murrells Inlet,
highlighting the need for caution.

Seas are expected to increase to 2 to 4 feet on Sunday night
into Monday before diminishing to 2 feet by Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RH/31