976
FXUS62 KILM 081034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through early Sunday. A cold
front will cross the Coastal Carolinas Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure will dominate the weather Tuesday through Friday. A
cold front will move into the region late Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dewpoints dropped almost 15 degrees along coast as front pushed
offshore overnight, leaving readings in the 50s most places.
Forecast on track for a sunny and much less humid day today.
Although, the sea breeze will carry richer dewpoint air inland
this afternoon.

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will build in behind cold front through
today with less humid weather in drier NW to W winds. Light N-NW
winds will back to the W-SW direction and along the coast,
winds will come around to a more E-SE flow in afternoon sea
breeze. Overall, quiet weather day with a few flat cu around
under subsidence inversion right around 7k ft, in an otherwise
bright and sunny day. Big challenge today will be getting the
dewpoints right as plenty of dry air in place, but sea breeze
will drag some higher dewpoint air inland this afternoon.

Weak ridge reaching up from the Gulf this afternoon flattens
out late day as a minor perturbation rides over the Carolinas
from the west. This should not bring anything other than some
mid to high clouds Sat night. High pressure establishes itself
offshore with a southerly return flow setting up Sat night into
early Sun, but remaining light.

Temps will up around 90 in a westerly downslope flow with less
humid conditions with widespread dewpoint temps in the 50s and
possible 40s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, weak high pressure will give way to a cold front
Sunday evening that will move off the coast. On Sunday night, a
weak short wave and a modest amount of moisture will create an
environment for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday is
expected to be warm, with highs in the mid-90s inland and
around 90 at the beaches. Cooler temperatures are expected
Monday, with highs in the upper 80s and inland to mid-80s at the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Tuesday, a deep shortwave trough along the east coast will
quickly shift off the coast. This trough will drive a cold front
off the coast to the east and into the Florida Panhandle to the
south. By the end of the week, this front will begin working
its way into southern South Carolina on Friday.

The synoptic level forcing is weak throughout the period, but a
chance of convection is possible on most days. Deeper moisture
begins to work north into Northeast South Carolina late Friday,
so the chance of thunderstorms will be slightly higher on Friday
south of a Florence to Myrtle Beach line.

High temperatures will be in the mid-80s on Tuesday, and for
the remainder of the week, the highs will be in the upper 80s to
near 90 inland and in the mid-80s at the beaches. Low
temperatures will range from 62 to 68 degrees on Tuesday and
will slowly warm to the lower to mid-70s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Much lower dewpoints
through today, but sea breeze will drag higher dewpoint air
inlan this afternoon. Northerly flow will continue to advect
drier air over the area through this morning. Overall, quiet
period with light N-NE flow backing inland to a light westerly
flow and becoming more E-SE for coastal terminals, but remaining
light. By tonight a return flow should set up as high shifts off
the coast. May see some high strato-cu or low AC stuck under
subsidence inversion around 7 to 8k ft develop today and expect
some cirrus tonight. Left out fog for now, but will need to keep
an eye on that with richer dewpoint air returning through later
today along the coast.


Extended Outlook...VFR expected on Saturday night into early
Sunday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered showers and
storms late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight, high pressure will build in behind exiting
cold front. The winds will be light out of the N to NW and will
become more variable this afternoon as afternoon sea breeze
kicks them around to the E-SE. By tonight, the high shifts
offshore with a S-SW return flow setting up. Seas will lower
from 2 to 4 ft down less than 2 ft by tonight with a minimal SE
swell up to 8 seconds mixing in.

Sunday through Thursday, a cold front will be well offshore on
Sunday, and high pressure will build over the waters ahead of a
second cold front that will move across the coast waters Monday
night. High pressure will be re-established on Tuesday through
Thursday.

Winds will be southwest 10 to 15 knots ahead of the cold front
Sunday through Sunday evening. The winds will veer to the northwest
after the frontal passage late Sunday night. The wind will return to
the southeast at around 10 knots on Wednesday and Thursday. Seas
will increase to 2 to 3 feet ahead of the cold front Sunday night
and then settle out around 2 feet Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RH