Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
630 FXUS63 KILX 270014 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 714 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of stronger storms are possible this evening for areas south of I-72. Discrete cells with the threat of large hail and isolated tornadoes are initially forecast before becoming a line of thunderstorms, with hail and damaging winds as the hazards. - Localized heavy rain and flooding for areas near and south of I-70 as storms, bringing high precipitation amounts, pass through this evening. - The weather calms down after tonight, providing us a benign week of weather. The next chance (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The next round of storms is possible this evening, mainly near and south of I-72. There is some uncertainty whether this round will make far enough north to be in the CWA or not but the newest HRRR and ARW show it just south of I-72. These are likely to be supercell structured with a large hail and tornado risk early in the event (21z-00z). Then will merge into a more linear form as it exits southeastern Illinois, posing more of a hail and damaging wind risk. The HRRR 12z soundings show STP of 1, SHIP of 2.1, midlevel lapse rates of ~8 C/km, and PWATs of 1.5-1.9 inches for this evening. We kept the Flood Watch for south of I-70 because of the higher PWATs, and the potential for training cells. After this evening, the weather will clear out. Memorial Day will be nice and dry with highs in the low to mid 70s. There could be some breezy winds at times, particularly late in the day. From the 12z HREF, there is a 50-60% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph in the late afternoon into the evening hours, then calming down by the overnight hours. Temperatures through the extended forecast will gradually warm up by next weekend. Low to mid 70s for highs through Thursday, then reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. The next significant chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday, with 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 714 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A few thunderstorms will be near KDEC and KCMI until 02Z, then all thunderstorm activity is expected to shift well south of the central IL terminals as a cold front moves through this evening. An area of BKN cigs over the upper Midwest will move southward into the area behind the cold front, expected to reach KBMI, KCMI, and KDEC northeastward by around 12Z, and linger through the morning hours. Expect northwesterly winds overnight, although the first few hours will see some lingering SW winds from I-55 eastward. Winds will be 8-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ILZ066>068-071>073. && $$