Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
536 FXUS64 KJAN 060529 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Low pressure is noted over the area on satellite tonight and a thermal trough is also noted over eastern parts of the area. The ascent coupled with locally steeper lapse rates will keep the chance for isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tonight. A couple of popup showers are noted in the vicinity of the I-59 corridor near Quitman and are anchored on a remnant outflow boundary beneath this area of enhanced lift. Furthermore, CAMs suggest there could be redevelopment of more scattered convection in this area over the next few hours, which fits given the aforementioned features./SAS/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Tonight through Thursday... Expect majority of activity to wind down after 8-10PM, but a few could linger as late as midnight. As the shortwave trough digs southeast over the Gulf Coast, expect this to become somewhat cutoff from the main deep layer trough/cold core over the northern Great Lakes into south-central Canada. This will pattern will finally begin to scour out some of the deep layer moisture & promote more active subsidence & decreased lapse rates overnight & into Thursday. Expect a downtrend in rain/storm chances, with chances clearing out of the Delta into the evening hours, Natchez Trace around midnight & potentially persisting into the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors through daybreak through around midday Thursday. A few stronger storms can`t be ruled out in the I-59 corridor but less probs for severe than recently. Expect seasonably warm lows in the upper 60s east of I-55 to low 70s west of I-55 while more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. With some aftn mixing & dewpoints falling from northwest to southeast into Thursday, expect somewhat less heat/humidity & heat stress to be a little less oppressive. /DC/ Thursday Night through Wednesday... Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front continues to push south across central MS. Quiet conditions will continue on Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in the vicinity of the Hwy 84 corridor. Heading into Saturday, afternoon global guidance highlights a sfc high pressure settling into much of the area. Drier air aloft will help suppress storm chances across most of central MS. Later on Sunday morning, the sfc high will start to shift east out of the area allowing for moisture to recover. A shortwave trough will push across the midsouth by Sunday afternoon/evening increasing rain and storm chances. Several long term models are hinting at organized convection due to increased flow around this timeframe which could bring several strong storms across the area, but forecast confidence on overall evolution is low at this time. We will continue to monitor trends and will provide updates as we get closer to the event. Heading into the start of the new work week, a seasonally anomalous trough will dig south across the eastern CONUS as a frontal boundary stalls over the southeast US. This stalled frontal boundary will help keep rain chances to a minimum through the mid-week across much of the forecast area. Because of this, the chances for scattered to isolated showers and storms will be possible mainly for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. Shower activity will continue heading into Wednesday as the frontal boundary shifts further south towards the Gulf Coast. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The bulk of the TSRA has shifted east of MS but isold TSRA wl remain possible until a cold front moves across the area by 12Z. VFR conds wl prevail away from TSRA until after 09Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl until after 14Z. After 14Z VFR conditions are expected and VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 69 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 89 69 90 63 / 30 0 0 0 Vicksburg 89 69 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 89 71 94 65 / 50 0 0 0 Natchez 89 69 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 90 71 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 89 69 88 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/CR/22