970
FXUS64 KJAN 082344 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

Dry and quiet conditions are expected tonight as upper-lvl/sfc
ridging remains over the central Gulf coast region. Clear skies and
calm winds may help for patchy fog development across southern
portions of the CWA Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The upper-lvl/sfc ridge is expected to migrate towards the east,
resulting in quiet and dry conditions through Sunday afternoon. As
the ridge moves eastward, southwesterly to westerly flow will advect
moist air into the region and increase dewpoints/humidity. High
temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. With
increasing humidity and low/mid 90 degree temperatures, heat indices
near 105 will be possible. An HWO graphic was created to highlight
the heat risk areas. By late afternoon, a shortwave disturbance
begins to move into the northern portion of the area. As result, low
rain PoPs (10-20%) will be possible for northern/northeastern parts
of the CWA. With high boundary layer moisture and decent flow, a
"Marginal" risk for severe weather was introduced by SPC and
highlighted in the HWO graphics. /SW/

Next week (Sunday night through next Friday)...

Through mid-week (Sunday night-Wednesday): Synoptic/sfc pattern at
the start will consist of deepening longwave trough over the eastern
CONUS while mean ridging will be situated over the southern Plains
into the lee of the Rockies. At the sfc, a frontal zone will be
diving down through the region. This is expected to have enough
moisture/convergence for some continuation of isolated rain & storm
chances, with some strong to isolated severe possible into Sunday
evening. With moist low-levels, seasonably warm lows are expected
Sunday night. With less oppressive thermo profiles (i.e. 850mb T 14-
18 deg C & 925mb T in upper teens to low 20s C) building in the wake
& mean northerly flow in the 850-700mb layer, expect more seasonable
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Some lingering flow will keep
some strong storm potential around as the front passes through, but
no major concerns to highlight for Monday. Heat stress will be much
less, with only concerns on Monday aftn south of I-20 into the Pine
Belt where they could peak near 100 deg F. Rain & storm chances
become more scoured out north of the Hwy 84 corridor as drier air
less than an inch PWs builds in from the north. Next features of
concern will be a potential "hybrid" Gulf low pressure & upper low
diving southeast out of the Plains. This will help gradual moist
return flow on the western periphery of the mean low-level ridge,
ahead of potential tropical moisture that builds in from the
southeast. Isolated-scattered rain & storms are possible southeast
of the Natchez Trace, but there is some disagreement in potential
onset, so this could be a touch too optimistic on more scattered
rain chances returning.

Late week (Thursday-Friday): There seems to be enough in global
consensus & ensembles of gradual development of a "hybrid" low
pressure across the Gulf of Mexico into late week & possibly next
weekend. At the very least, this looks to bring a deep slug of
tropical moisture northward (i.e. 340-350K 850mb Theta E & >2-2.5
inch PWs) across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. In
addition, there will be increased low-level convergence ahead of a
diving upper low across the Gulf coast states late week. At a
minimum, rain & storm coverage will be on the uptick, with scattered
rain chances along & southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor while
more isolated to the northwest. Details remain unclear at this point
in development & no areas of concern are highlighted by the National
Hurricane Center at this point. Temperatures will be moderating back
to more seasonable in upper 80s to low 90s, with seasonably warm
lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Thursday morning to low-mid 70s into
next weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

TSRA may come in vcty of GWO-GTR toward the end of the TAF period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail through Sunday aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  94  71  88 /   0  10  10  20
Meridian      68  96  72  90 /   0  10  20  20
Vicksburg     72  94  71  88 /   0   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   71  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  40
Natchez       71  93  71  90 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    74  96  71  86 /   0  10  20  20
Greenwood     72  94  70  86 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/DC/22