149
FXUS64 KJAN 020016 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
716 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Through Sunday: An active weather pattern will continue in the
near term as rain and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
later on in the evening.

Short term guidance continues to show a shortwave disturbance
developing a convective complex in the southwest and pushing the
previously mentioned complex into the ArkLaMiss region during the
evening/overnight hours. With instability still in place (MLCAPE
values near 2000 J/kg, lapse rate between 6-7 C/km) and decent
precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, isolated severe weather
and flash flooding will remain a concern through the evening,
mainly over southern and far eastern portions of the area, and
HWO graphics will continue to reflect the risk areas. Overnight
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off Sunday morning as a
shortwave disturbance moves off towards the east. A strong storm or
two could be possible during Sunday morning but severe weather is
not anticipated. As the shortwave progresses through the area, flash
flooding threat should diminish as the afternoon progresses and
rain chances will diminish late afternoon into the evening. /SW/

Sunday night through Friday night: Active westerlies will
continue through the long term forecast bringing the potential for
additional MCS activity and perhaps the threat for severe weather
and localized flash flooding. Convective rainfall should be most
prominent over northern portions of the area Mon-Tue, but it
appears the Wed-Fri time frame will have the greatest concerns
for the area as whole when a significant cold front is expected to
push farther south toward the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

TSRA will continue near KHEZ through around 02Z-03Z, but
confidence in thunder impacts near the other TAF sites is too low
to mention at this time. Chances for additional scattered SHRA or
TSRA will increase after 15Z Sunday, especially for locations
along and south of Interstate 20. Low stratus and possible patchy
BR are expected to produce MVFR to IFR conditions between around
09Z to 15Z Sunday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  87  69  89 /  20  20   0  20
Meridian      68  89  68  91 /  30  30   0  20
Vicksburg     69  88  70  89 /  20  20   0  20
Hattiesburg   70  88  70  91 /  30  40   0  20
Natchez       69  87  70  89 /  40  40   0  20
Greenville    70  89  72  89 /  10  20   0  20
Greenwood     70  89  70  90 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/EC/NF