511
FXUS64 KJAN 311933
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday: Periods of showers and storms will
continue through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe
with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out but it seems as if that threat is
diminishing and the damaging wind threat and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main issues with these waves of showers and
storms. We still maintain a marginal to slight risk of severe
weather over portions of the forecast area through tonight.

Saturday night through Thursday: Active weather including the
potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible
over most of the period. By Saturday evening the shortwave trough
axis will be east of Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection
with it. Our region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and
there is at least a couple models hinting at an mcs moving back into
our southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain would
also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday night
through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two to four
inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in
localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm moist airmass
in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with another subtle
shortwave to enhance convection over the region leading to
scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday evening. This
convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal trend to it and
will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We will still have a
warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. Monday yet another
shortwave trough is expected to move across the region during the
heat of the day and lead to at least scattered coverage of mainly
afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday convection is expected
to be less and more confined to our northern zones as mid level
ridging looks to strengthen some over the southern portions of our
CWA. There remain difference in the models with Wednesday into
Thursday but consensus suggests a northern stream disturbance will
be strong enough to help send a cold front into our region that
would lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Expect mixed cigs across the forecast area this afternoon as a
decaying MCV continues to slowly track across the region. We
expect more shower and thunderstorm development later this
evening and overnight. We will have to amend TAFs as the storms
develop as timing still remains an uncertainty. Saturday
conditions should improve in the late morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  84  69  84 /  70  80  30  50
Meridian      67  82  67  84 /  60  90  40  60
Vicksburg     68  85  70  87 /  80  80  30  50
Hattiesburg   70  85  70  87 /  60  90  30  60
Natchez       67  85  69  87 /  60  80  30  50
Greenville    70  85  70  85 /  90  60  30  40
Greenwood     67  84  70  85 /  80  80  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/22/MJH