241
FXUS64 KJAN 310612
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
112 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

An MCV developed earlier this evening from convection to our west,
with the center pivoting over northern Louisiana at this hour. A
QLCS pushing out and trailing south from the MCV is now working
its way into central and northeast Louisiana/southwest
Mississippi. Mesoanalysis shows a gradient of MLCAPE angling down
toward the southeast Louisiana coastline from the apex of the
current bow. Current coldest cloud tops and lightning activity
levels are trending south of Natchez, and this indicates the
general corridor of greatest threat for damaging wind gusts or
brief tornado threat over the next few hours. The portions of the
line farther north should still hold together to bring better
shower and thunderstorm chances than previous forecast. Have
boosted POPs into the morning based on current trends and latest
guidance. Instability drops off farther north, but some strong
gusts and heavy downpours are still expected. Overall short- term
guidance is still playing catchup, so some amount of extrapolation
from the present situation is required. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Tonight and Friday: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
diminish as the evening progresses. An isolated shower can`t be
rule out during the overnight hours. Otherwise, skies are expected
to be partly cloudy with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

On Friday, a stalled frontal boundary is expected to transition into
a warm front and begin to lift northward from the Gulf coast,
bringing moist/unstable air into the CWA. Once the aforementioned
warm front lifts back through the area, a few shortwave disturbances
is expected to traverse across the region. As a result, shower and
thunderstorm potential will continue across the ArkLaMiss region,
with best chances for severe weather and flash flooding during the
afternoon and into the evening hours. A "Slight" risk for severe
weather will be possible west of I-55; elsewhere; a "Marginal" risk
for severe weather is in place. Damaging wind gusts and an isolated
tornado are the primary hazards of concern and HWO graphic will be
updated to reflect the hazards. As PW values near 1.5 inches, flash
flooding concerns will have to be monitored as 2-4 inches of rain
will be possible. /SW/

Friday night through Wednesday night: Active weather including the
potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible
over most of the period. Come Friday evening a nearly stacked low
will be moving from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi
valley. Convection associated with this system will be ongoing from
the afternoon and pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes
over the northwest portions of our CWA into the evening. The tornado
threat will be ending during the evening while the damaging wind
threat will continue into Saturday morning. Locally heavy rain will
also accompany the storms. Saturday the low will track northeast
across the Ohio valley while the trailing cold front stalls across
the northwest portions of our CWA. Daytime heating of our warm moist
airmass combined with subtle shortwaves and the stalled front will
maintain a threat of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind
gusts and hail to the size of quarters Saturday afternoon and
evening. The stalled front will remain a focus for convection
through Sunday. During Friday night through Sunday there will be the
potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time.
This would result in localized flash flooding. We will still have a
warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. There will be the
potential for diurnally driven convection along with another
approaching cold front that will result in the potential for heavy
rain and strong to isolated severe storms each day. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Most TAF sites are VFR tonight, but showers/storms are moving
across the southwestern portions of the area. As the storms move
eastward, they may bring MVFR conditions to JAN/HBG over the next
few hours. Expect these storms to continue to diminish through the
night, but another round of storms are likely this afternoon. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  69  83  68 /  40  30  80  40
Meridian      91  69  84  68 /  20  20  80  50
Vicksburg     87  68  83  69 /  70  40  80  40
Hattiesburg   91  71  87  69 /  20  20  80  40
Natchez       86  69  84  69 /  80  30  80  30
Greenville    86  70  83  70 /  70  60  80  40
Greenwood     88  68  82  69 /  40  50  80  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15