750
FXUS62 KJAX 110610
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 14Z. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading
northward from the FL peninsula will begin to encroach on the GNV
terminal after 15Z, with better chances for impacts occurring
after 19Z. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop
near the rest of the northeast FL terminals after 18Z, and PROB30
groups for MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours and wind
gusts up to 25 knots were included through around 00Z.
Thunderstorms are a little less likely at SSI, but vicinity
showers will be possible after 13Z. Convection is expected to
dissipate after sunset on Tuesday evening, with VFR conditions
expected to prevail at the regional terminals after 00Z Wednesday.
Southwesterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SSI will
continue through around 08Z, with west or west-southwesterly
surface winds of 5-10 knots expected elsewhere and also after 08Z
at SSI. Surface winds will then shift to northwesterly at SSI
after 13Z, with westerly winds expected elsewhere at the northeast
FL terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze will then develop and shift
inland on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in winds shifting to east-
southeasterly at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals by 18Z, while
winds shift to southerly at GNV and VQQ. Surface winds will then
shift to southerly at 5-10 knots after 00Z at the regional
terminals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weakening frontal boundary will linger across the I-10 corridor
Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually shifting southward into
north-central FL Wednesday night. Meanwhile, trough axis over the
eastern seaboard will advect mid-level drier air (PWATs < 1 in.)
from the west-northwest on Tuesday. This will confine rain chances
to mainly NE FL on Tuesday where the better low-level moisture
(PWATs 1.5-2 in.) is and the sea breezes converge with the frontal
boundary. SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will work to bring
tropical moisture (PWATs ~2 in.) northward into NE FL and SE GA.
Rain chances return to SE GA on Wednesday with the increase in
moisture. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit
lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but
highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Unsettled and rainy pattern continues through the end of the week.
The frontal boundary over north-central FL will remain stalled
across north-central FL through Friday. The best moisture will be
along and south of the boundary. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs
2+ in.) advects northward into the weekend as upper level impulses
across the Gulf will lift the boundary into the I-10 corridor.
Showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances
across north-central FL. With the juicy airmass, multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall will be possible into the weekend. A Marginal
risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for our
north central FL counties. Highs will begin in the low-mid 90s
during the latter half of the week, dropping to around 90 across
most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows
expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move
southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the
Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning.
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local
waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal
boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds
are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low
pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters
through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights
should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through
Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should
result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  70  92  71 /  10  10  30  20
SSI  88  77  87  76 /  40  20  50  40
JAX  94  74  91  73 /  60  20  60  40
SGJ  92  74  90  74 /  60  30  70  60
GNV  94  72  91  71 /  70  50  80  40
OCF  90  72  90  73 /  70  50  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$