047
FXUS63 KJKL 011846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
246 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region through the remainder of
  this weekend.

- Weather conditions will become warmer and continue to be
  unsettled during the week. After a relative lull in
  precipitation Monday, the potential of showers and thunderstorms
  will again increase through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

A slow-moving disturbance crosses the region tonight through much of
Sunday bringing light rain and occasional showers. By Sunday night
mid-level ridging builds over the area despite low-level westerly
upslope flow and moisture transport into the region. Instability
will remain limited despite sufficient moisture for thunderstorms
through Sunday morning. However, sun breaks will develop by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon and yield widespread weak
instability with possibly isolated areas of moderate instability,
which should support at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development.

Lows tonight will be on the warmer side with clouds and light shower
activity, with upper 50s to lower 60s and little in the way of a
temperature spread between ridges and valleys. Highs Sunday are
expected in the mid to upper 70s with clouds and a few sun breaks
followed by afternoon shower and thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging builds over the region Sunday night, but low-level
moisture transport will continue into the region from the west,
keeping lows on the mild side with upper 50s to lower 60s. Fog
extent will depend on any partial clearing that may develop. For
now, will carry patchy to areas of fog in the grids and zone
forecasts.



.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 532 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

General agreement among operational models with the pattern aloft
through the extended. Ridging and surface high pressure will yield
to a weakening disturbance that will drift from west to east across
the region at the start of the extended, or late Monday through
Tuesday. Coincident with this time frame, a low will be riding into
the northwestern CONUS from the Pacific, through the Northern
Rockies and into the Plains. This feature takes on a negative tilt
as it tracks eastward along the Northern Tier and into the Upper
Great Lakes region. As a result, additional short wave energy will
enter into the Lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday or Tuesday night,
and across the Commonwealth on Wednesday. The low sets up residence
over the Great Lakes for the remainder of the period, sending
additional short wave impulses around the southern periphery of the
mean low, into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, eastern Kentucky
resides in a warm sector through the bulk of the extended, or until
a relatively strong cold front for this time of the year sweeps
through the area by the end of the period, probably sometime during
the Thursday night to Friday window of time.

Sensible weather features a return to an unsettled pattern, with an
opportunity of showers and thunderstorms just about every day of the
period, with Monday being the least likely day of seeing rainfall.
Temperatures will be quite warm through the period, mid to upper 80s
for daily high temperatures until the end of the week. Temperatures
cool back into the 70s for highs after the aforementioned cold front
passes through the area. Overnight lows will run generally in the
60s, but cooling well into the 50s at the end of the forecast as
high pressure ushers in drier air and pleasantly cool conditions.

No solid signals with respect to hazards through the period.
Ensemble probabilistic data suggests nothing in the way of heavy
rain, with only a 40-50% chance of rainfall totals GTE to a half
inch with the mid week system. Probabilities of an inch or more are
around 10% or less. At present, WPC`s (forecast) QPF leans towards
the upper end of those ranges with general 0.5-1.0 inches of
rainfall in the forecast from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Considering the time of year and that much of the area continues to
run at or just a bit below normal on rainfall (southwestern zones
being the exception), do not expect this would cause any hydro
issues across the area. Thunderstorms will be possible through the
period as well, with a noticeable diurnal flavor to the activity.
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday as MLCAPEs climb to around
1000 J/kg. However, at this time effective shear is marginal at
best, around 35 kts or less. Considering that the system coming into
the region appears to take on a negatively tilted structure, meaning
a more dynamic system, one might expect the environmental conditions
to become more favorable for storms with future forecast cycles,
thus it will be worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

VFR conditions will gradually lower to mainly low-end VFR cigs
after 00z this evening in -SHRA, with low-end VFR to MVFR
cigs developing late tonight into Saturday morning before most
likely returning to at least low-VFR cigs by the end of the TAF
period Saturday afternoon. Showers will overspread the forecast
area from west to east, beginning between 18z-21z at KSME, and
reaching KSJS toward 06z tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible
mainly tonight, and primarily west of Interstate 75.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...CMC